Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, 5/4/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Sunday, May 4, 2025

Location: Fenway Park in Boston, MA

TV: NESN

Odds/Point Spread: Minnesota (+125) Boston (-145)

The Boston Red Sox (17-16) welcome the Minnesota Twins (13-19) at Fenway Park on Sunday. The line on this contest has the Twins at +125 and the Red Sox are coming in at -145. The over/under comes in at 8.5. The pitchers taking the mound are Chris Paddack and Garrett Crochet.

The Twins have hit 58 doubles as a team and have smacked 25 baseballs out of the park. Minnesota is slugging .369 and have been called out on strikes 257 times, while drawing a walk on 95 occasions. As a squad, the Minnesota Twins are earning 3.8 runs per outing, which ranks them 22nd in the league. They have earned 117 runs batted in and 249 base knocks on the year, and their batting average is sitting at .235. They have 123 runs while holding a team on-base percentage of .308.

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The Twins are sitting with a team ERA of 3.52 for the year (7th in baseball), and the staff has struck out 278 hitters. Twins pitchers have allowed 34 long balls and 119 total runs (8th in baseball). Their pitching staff has walked 85 players from the other team and their FIP sits at 3.73 as a team this season. Minnesota has given up 246 hits (8.0 per 9 innings) in addition to 108 earned runs. They have a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.27 and the pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.20.

The Twins bullpen have a save percentage of 33.3% and have stepped onto the mound in 32 save situations. The relief pitchers have inherited 38 base runners so far this year and 36.8% of them ended up scoring. Twins bullpen pitchers have come into the game with opponents on base 25 times in addition to having 30 appearances in high leverage situations. The Twins have sent 107 relievers to the mound so far this season. The relief pitchers have 22 holds on the year (9th in baseball). They have recorded 3 saves on the season and have blown 6 of 9 save opportunities.

The Milwaukee Brewers have accounted for 829 putouts on the year, as well as 217 assists and 19 errors. Their fielding rate is currently at .982 which ranks 24th in pro baseball, and have a total of 17 double plays. The Twins have turned 70.1% of balls hit into play into outs out of 2,487 innings on the field, which has them ranked 15th in the majors.

Paddack has pitched in 450 innings and has accumulated 439 strikeouts during his pro baseball career. Paddack (27-27 career record) holds a FIP of 4.39 while he has faced 1,894 hitters during his time in the majors. His earned run average is 4.46 (223 earned runs allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.210. He has allowed 442 base knocks (8.8 hits per 9 innings) with 103 walks.

The Red Sox hold a slugging % of .418 and they are scoring 5.03 runs per contest (7th in the league). They have put up 64 two-baggers, while taking a walk 128 times as well as scoring 166 runs. Boston has 40 HRs on the season as well as 157 RBIs. They have been rung up on 303 instances (2nd in the league) and have totaled 286 base hits. The Boston Red Sox have tallied an OBP of .330 and a team batting average of .250 so far this season.

The Boston pitching staff have allowed 152 runs for the year and come in with a team ERA of 4.05 (132 earned runs yielded). They have given up 31 dingers and they give up 4.67 runs per 9 innings (23rd in the league). The Red Sox have a team WHIP of 1.299 with a FIP of 3.73 as a squad so far this year. They currently have a K/BB ratio of 8.60 (282 strikeouts vs 103 bases on balls). They are sitting at 25th in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits conceded with 278.

Boston bullpen pitchers have an inherited score rate of 50.0% out of 30 inherited runners. Their bullpen pitchers have taken the field 31 times in high leverage situations and on 23 occasions with base runners. Sitting with 25 save situations, the Red Sox have accumulated 9 holds and also 7 blown saves. They rank 24th in the league holding a save rate of 53.3%, and they have dispatched 98 relievers to the hill on the year. Boston has called on bullpen pitchers to take the mound in 15 save opportunities and they have recorded 8 saves.

Out of their 2,643 innings on the field, the Red Sox have a defensive efficiency of 67.7% (24th in the majors). The Boston Red Sox have gotten 29 double plays and have earned a fielding percentage of .977 (29th in the majors). The Red Sox have recorded 300 assists, 28 errors and have accounted for 881 putouts during this campaign.

Thus far in his career, Crochet has given up 208 base hits while totaling 344 strikeouts in 263 frames. Crochet (12-21 win-loss mark in his career) is the owner of a 3.08 earned run average while conceding 7.1 hits per nine innings. He has given up a total of 90 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.137 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.0. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.78 and he has gone up against 1,086 batters thus far in his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Boston (-145)

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