New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, 5/21/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Wednesday, May 21, 2025

Location: Fenway Park in Boston, MA

TV: NESN

Odds/Point Spread: New York (-275) Boston (+220)

The New York Mets (29-19) are on their way to Fenway Park on Wednesday where they will attempt to beat the Boston Red Sox (24-25). The odds on this game have New York at -275 and Boston is sitting at +220. The over/under is set at 8. The pitchers taking the mound are Tylor Megill and Garrett Crochet.

The Mets have tallied 84 two-baggers as a squad and have hit 52 baseballs out of the stadium. New York has a slugging rate of .412 and have struck out 366 times, while taking a walk on 175 occasions. As a unit, the New York Mets are knocking in 4.4 runs/g, which has them at 12th in baseball. They have accrued 204 RBI's and 393 base knocks this year, and their average at the plate comes in at .247. They have a total of 213 runs while having a team OBP of .329.

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Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 2.47 and the pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.27. Mets pitchers have surrendered 31 home runs in addition to 159 runs in total (2nd in baseball). New York has conceded 364 hits (7.7 per 9 innings) and 135 earned runs. The Mets are sitting with a team ERA of 2.87 this year (1st in MLB), and their staff has struck out 425 batters. They have walked 172 opposing players and their FIP sits at 3.37 as a squad on the year.

Mets bullpen pitchers have entered the contest with runners on base 42 times as well as having 62 appearances in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers are sitting with 35 holds so far this season (5th in MLB). The Mets relief pitchers have recorded a save rate of 61.9% and have entered the game in 56 save situations. They have accumulated 13 saves for the year and have missed out on 8 of their 21 chances to save the game. The relief pitchers have inherited 64 runners so far this year and 31.3% of those players ended up scoring. The Mets have dispatched 153 relief pitchers to the mound this year.

The Mets have turned 69.5% of balls in play into outs in their 3,807 innings, which ranks them 19th in professional baseball. The Minnesota Twins have amassed 1,269 putouts over the course of the season, in addition to 420 assists and 25 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .985 which ranks 20th in pro baseball, and they have turned 33 double plays.

Megill (24-25 career mark) has earned a FIP of 4.41 while he has gone up against 1,676 batters during his time in the major leagues. He has surrendered 383 hits (9.0 hits per 9 innings) and has 152 walks. His ERA is 4.47 (191 ER's allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.393. Megill has taken the mound for 384 innings and is sitting with 402 strikeouts in his pro baseball career.

The Red Sox have a slugging percentage of .423 and they score 4.84 runs per outing (7th in baseball). They have 92 two-baggers, while getting a free base 165 times as well as scoring 237 runs. Boston has a total of 60 home runs on the season to go along with 227 RBIs. They have struck out on 442 occasions (4th in baseball) and have accounted for 433 hits. The Boston Red Sox have an on-base percentage of .325 in addition to a batting average of .254 on the campaign.

The Red Sox are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.343 and are the owners of a FIP of 3.86 as a team this year. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 8.30 (407 strikeouts against 154 walks). They have a ranking of 27th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits conceded with 436. They have allowed 48 homers and they concede 4.65 runs per 9 innings (22nd in MLB). The Boston pitching staff have yielded 227 runs so far this season while holding a team ERA of 4.10 (200 earned runs relinquished).

Boston has had relief pitchers take the mound in 22 save opportunities and they have earned 11 saves. They are currently ranked 26th in the league with a save rate of 50.0%, and they have sent 152 relievers to the mound on the season. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the mound 57 times in high leverage situations and on 44 occasions with runners on base. Boston relief pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 33.3% out of 60 inherited runners. With 38 save situations, the Red Sox have tallied 15 holds in addition to 11 blown saves.

Out of their 3,957 innings on the diamond, the Red Sox hold a efficiency on defense of 67.1% (28th in professional baseball). The Boston Red Sox have turned 46 double plays and have notched a fielding percentage of .978 (29th in the majors). The Red Sox have accrued 447 assists, 40 errors and have amassed 1,319 putouts for the year.

Crochet (13-22 career record) is the owner of a 3.00 ERA while allowing 7.2 hits per 9 innings. His strikeout to walk ratio is 3.90 and he has faced 1,162 hitters so far in his MLB career. He has allowed 94 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.135 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.0. In his MLB career, Crochet has allowed 226 base hits while he has totaled 367 K's in 282 frames.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take New York (-275)

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