New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, 9/23/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs

Date: Tuesday, September 23, 2025

Location: Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL

TV: Marquee

Odds/Point Spread: New York (+125) Chicago (-145)

The New York Mets (80-76) are headed to Wrigley Field on Tuesday where they will attempt to beat the Chicago Cubs (88-68). The moneyline on this matchup has the Mets at +125 while the Cubs are opening at -145. The total has been set at 9. The pitchers taking the mound will be David Peterson and Cade Horton.

As a unit, the New York Mets are putting up 4.8 runs/g, which ranks them 10th in MLB. They have notched a total of 737 runs scored while holding a team OBP of .328. The Mets have earned 253 doubles as a team and have hit 214 baseballs out of the stadium. They have compiled 718 runs batted in as well as 1,307 base knocks for the season, while their average at the plate is sitting at .250. New York has a slugging rate of .429 and have struck out 1,267 times, while being walked on 540 occasions.

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The Mets have compiled a team ERA of 3.99 so far this year (16th in baseball), and the staff has rung up 1,327 hitters. Mets pitchers have relinquished 142 home runs and also 680 runs (18th in MLB). They have walked 539 opposing batters and their FIP comes in at 3.90 as a unit so far this year. New York has conceded 1,282 hits (8.4 per 9 innings) as well as 609 earned runs. They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.46 and their pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.33.

The Mets have sent 510 relievers to the hill for the year. The relief pitchers have inherited 242 base runners so far this season and 34.7% of those runners crossed home plate. They have recorded 38 saves for the season and have not converted 27 of their 65 chances to save the game. The Mets relievers have a save rate of 58.5% and have entered the game in 161 save situations. The relievers have tallied 95 holds on the year (8th in the league). Mets bullpen pitchers have gone to the mound with opponents on base 164 times in addition to having 180 appearances in high leverage situations.

The Mets have converted 68.8% of balls hit into play into outs out of 12,348 innings, which ranks them 24th in MLB. The Minnesota Twins have earned a total of 4,116 putouts at this point in the season, as well as 1,407 assists and 74 errors. Their fielding rate is currently at .987 which ranks 12th in baseball, and have a total of 116 double plays.

Peterson has thrown 621 innings and has tallied 613 K's so far in his pro baseball career. Peterson (37-30 career record) has a FIP of 4.00 while going up against 2,660 opposing hitters in the majors. His ERA is 4.06 (280 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.365. He has surrendered 588 hits (8.5 hits per 9 innings) and has 260 walks.

The Cubs hold a team slugging percentage of .427 and they are earning 4.84 runs per game (8th in the league). They have put up 257 two-baggers, while getting a free base 533 times as well as notching 750 runs. Chicago has a total of 209 home runs on the year to go along with 731 RBIs. They have been called out on strikes on 1,216 instances (25th in MLB) and have 1,310 base hits. The Chicago Cubs have tallied an OBP of .320 as well as a team batting average of .249 this year.

The Cubs have a team WHIP of 1.187 and are the owners of a FIP of 4.20 as a unit over the course of the season. They have earned a K/BB ratio of 7.90 (1,202 strikeouts against 394 bases on balls). They have a ranking of 10th in the league as a staff in total hits conceded with 1,236. They have surrendered 193 home runs and they concede 4.09 runs per 9 innings (6th in the league). The Chicago pitching staff have surrendered 624 runs on the year and come in with a team ERA of 3.83 (585 earned runs yielded).

With 170 save situations, the Cubs have recorded 106 holds and also 19 blown saves. Chicago has called on bullpen pitchers to step onto the hill in 61 save opportunities and they have earned 42 saves. Their bullpen pitchers have come in 153 times in high leverage situations in addition to 96 occasions with runners on base. Chicago relief pitchers hold an inherited score rate of 32.6% of 135 inherited base runners. They sit at 5th in baseball holding a save percentage of 68.9%, and they have sent 502 relievers to the mound on the campaign.

Out of their 12,357 innings on the field, the Cubs have accumulated a defensive efficiency of 71.8% (3rd in pro baseball). The Chicago Cubs have turned 116 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .989 (5th in MLB). The Cubs have accrued 1,289 assists, 59 errors and have earned a total of 4,119 putouts for the season.

During his pro baseball career, Horton has allowed 93 hits while he has tallied 95 K's in 115 innings. He has allowed 34 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.096 and having a FIP of 2.6. His K/BB ratio is 2.88 and he has gone up against 465 opposing hitters in his pro baseball career. Horton (11-4 career win-loss mark) has a 2.66 earned run average while giving up 7.3 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take New York (+125)

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