New York Mets vs Kansas City Royals Prediction, 7/11/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New York Mets vs Kansas City Royals

Date: Friday, July 11, 2025

Location: Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO

TV: FanDuel Sports Network Kansas City

Odds/Point Spread: New York (-275) Kansas City (+220)

The Kansas City Royals (44-48) are welcoming the New York Mets (52-39) at Kauffman Stadium on Friday. The odds on this game have the Mets at -275 while the Royals are priced at +220. The over/under is set at 8.5. The pitchers taking the mound will be Kodai Senga and Michael Wacha.

As a squad, the New York Mets are putting up 4.4 runs per game, which ranks them 14th in the league. They have notched a total of 402 runs scored while holding a team OBP of .324. The Mets have tallied 142 two-baggers as a squad and have hit 118 balls out of the stadium. They have earned 392 runs batted in in addition to 744 hits so far this year, and their batting average is at .245. New York has a slugging rate of .418 and have struck out 710 times, while being walked on 311 occasions.

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The Mets have an ERA of 3.54 on the campaign (6th in the league), and they have struck out 786 batters. Mets pitchers have surrendered 79 home runs and 358 runs (9th in the league). They have walked 334 opposing batters and their FIP comes in at 3.77 as a squad for the season. New York has yielded 720 hits (8.0 per 9 innings) and 318 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 2.35 and their pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.30.

Mets bullpen pitchers have entered the contest with runners on 97 times in addition to having 108 appearances in high leverage situations. The bullpen have a total of 59 holds over the course of the season (8th in MLB). The Mets relievers have accumulated a save rate of 61.9% and stepped onto the hill in 101 save situations. They have accumulated 26 saves so far this year and have not converted 16 of their 42 save opportunities. The relief pitchers have inherited 148 runners on the year and 34.5% of them crossed home plate. The Mets have dispatched 291 relief pitchers to the hill over the course of the season.

The Mets have converted 69.7% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 7,272 innings on the diamond, which ranks them 17th in MLB. The Minnesota Twins have earned 2,424 putouts this season, in addition to 820 assists and 43 errors. Their fielding percentage sits at .987 which puts them in 12th in the majors, and they have turned 73 double plays.

Senga has taken the mound for 244 innings and has earned 281 strikeouts during his career. Senga (20-10 career win-loss record) sits with a FIP of 2.50 while facing 1,007 hitters during his time in the majors. His ERA is 2.54 (69 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.178. He has conceded 179 base hits (6.6 hits per nine innings) and has had 109 walks.

The Royals hold a team slugging percentage of .371 and they have an average of 3.40 runs per game (29th in MLB). They have 157 doubles, while taking a walk 218 times and putting up 313 runs. Kansas City has a total of 67 home runs so far this season as well as 309 RBIs. They have struck out on 636 occasions (29th in baseball) and have tallied 752 base hits. The Kansas City Royals have recorded an OBP of .299 in addition to a team batting average of .244 this season.

The Royals have a WHIP of 1.213 in addition to having a FIP of 3.82 as a staff this season. They are currently ranked 12th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits surrendered with 724. The Kansas City pitching staff have allowed 337 runs so far this year and come in with a team ERA of 3.47 (315 earned runs conceded). Their strikeout to walk ratio is 8.20 (746 strikeouts against 267 bases on balls). They have conceded 93 long balls and they yield 3.71 runs per 9 innings (3rd in the league).

Kansas City has had relief pitchers take the mound in 36 save chances and they have come away with 27 saves. They are ranked 2nd in baseball with a save percentage of 75.0%, and they have sent 297 relief pitchers to the hill on the season. Their bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the mound 101 times in high leverage situations and also on 91 occasions with base runners. Kansas City relief pitchers have an inherited score percentage of 30.8% out of 130 inherited runners. Sitting with 86 save situations, the Royals have accumulated 49 holds and 9 blown saves.

Out of their 7,353 innings on the diamond, the Royals have a defensive efficiency of 71.0% (7th in pro baseball). The Kansas City Royals have turned 71 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .988 (6th in the majors). The Royals have 814 assists, 40 errors and have accounted for 2,451 putouts during this campaign.

Thus far in his career, Wacha has surrendered 1,505 base hits and he has 1,369 strikeouts in 1,555 innings. Wacha (105-71 career mark) holds a 3.89 ERA while allowing 8.7 hits per 9 innings. He has conceded 672 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.282 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.8. His strikeout to walk ratio is 2.81 and he has gone up against 6,560 batters so far in his MLB career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take New York (-275)

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