New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Prediction, 7/28/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New York Mets vs San Diego Padres

Date: Monday, July 28, 2025

Location: Petco Park in San Diego, CA

TV: Padres.TV

Odds/Point Spread: New York (-144) San Diego (+120)

Petco Park is where the San Diego Padres (55-48) will attempt to beat the New York Mets (59-44) on Monday. The line on this contest has the Mets at -144 while the Padres are priced at +120. The total comes in at 8.5. The pitchers expected to start will be Frankie Montas and Dylan Cease.

New York has a slugging % of .411 and have struck out 816 times, while taking a walk on 357 occasions. They have tallied 439 RBI's in addition to 830 hits on the campaign, and their team batting average sits at .242. The Mets have tallied 159 two-baggers as a team and have hit 130 balls out of the stadium. They have a total of 451 runs scored while holding a team OBP of .322. As a team, the New York Mets are recording 4.4 runs per game, which puts them at 15th in MLB.

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The Mets have an earned run average of 3.57 for the season (3rd in MLB), and the staff has struck out 881 batters. Mets pitchers have surrendered 90 home runs in addition to 406 total runs (6th in the league). Their pitching staff has walked 371 hitters and their FIP is 3.81 as a team so far this year. New York has allowed 816 base hits (8.0 per 9 innings) as well as 363 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 2.37 and the pitching staff has recorded a WHIP of 1.30.

The Mets have dispatched 331 relief pitchers to the mound this year. The relievers have inherited 171 base runners on the year and 33.3% of those runners earned a run for their team. They have compiled 32 saves over the course of the season and have missed out on 18 of their 50 chances to get a save. The Mets bullpen have accumulated a save percentage of 64.0% and have come into the game in 117 save situations. The relievers have 67 holds on the season (8th in MLB). Mets relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill with runners on base 114 times in addition to having 125 appearances in high leverage situations.

The Minnesota Twins have accounted for 2,743 putouts this year, in addition to 936 assists and 48 errors. Their fielding percentage is at .987 which has them ranked 11th in the majors, and they have turned 80 double plays. The Mets have converted 69.8% of balls in play into outs out of 8,229 innings, which has them sitting at 15th in the majors.

Montas has thrown 769 innings and has tallied 783 strikeouts during his MLB career. Montas (47-47 record in his career) holds a FIP of 4.05 while he has gone up against 3,287 opposing batters during his time in the majors. His earned run average is 4.11 (351 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.309. He has given up 738 base knocks (8.6 hits per 9 innings) and has 269 walks.

The San Diego Padres are sitting with an on-base percentage of .315 and a batting average of .246 on the season. They have struck out on 729 occasions (28th in the league) and are sitting with 843 hits. San Diego has tallied 88 home runs on the year and 388 RBIs. The Padres have a SLG% of .376 and they earn 4.02 runs per contest (25th in baseball). They have 156 two-baggers, while getting a free base 327 times as well as scoring 414 runs.

The Padres have a WHIP of 1.239 and are the owners of a FIP of 3.90 as a pitching staff so far this year. They are currently ranked 5th in the league as a staff in total hits relinquished with 785. The San Diego pitching staff have given up 400 runs on the season while having an ERA of 3.63 (367 earned runs yielded). They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 8.70 (874 strikeouts against 341 walks). They have conceded 103 homers and they relinquish 3.96 runs per 9 innings (5th in MLB).

With 119 save situations, the Padres have 70 holds and 12 blown saves. San Diego has had relief pitchers take the mound in 47 save chances and they have tallied 35 saves. Their bullpen pitchers have come in 150 times in high leverage situations and on 124 occasions with runners on. San Diego relievers hold an inherited score percentage of 29.3% out of their 174 inherited runners. They are currently ranked 1st in the league holding a save percentage of 74.5%, and they have dispatched 361 bullpen pitchers onto the field for the season.

Out of their 8,181 innings played, the Padres have a defensive efficiency of 70.9% (9th in the majors). The San Diego Padres have gotten 77 double plays and have accounted for a fielding rate of .986 (19th in MLB). The Padres have recorded 782 assists, 51 errors and have 2,727 putouts for the year.

Thus far in his career, Cease has allowed 808 hits and he has 1,160 K's in 960 innings pitched. Cease (60-56 career mark) is the owner of a 3.85 ERA while allowing 7.6 hits per 9 innings. He has surrendered 411 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.259 and having a FIP of 3.8. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.89 and he has faced 4,069 hitters so far in his MLB career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take New York (-144)

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