New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, 9/12/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Friday, September 12, 2025

Location: Fenway Park in Boston, MA

TV: NESN

Odds/Point Spread: New York (-275) Boston (+220)

Fenway Park is the location where the Boston Red Sox (81-66) will attempt to defeat the New York Yankees (80-65) on Friday. The moneyline on this contest has New York at -275 while Boston is at +220. The over/under comes in at 9. The expected starting pitchers will be Luis Gil and Lucas Giolito.

As a squad, the New York Yankees are scoring 5.2 runs per game, which has them sitting at 1st in MLB. They are sitting with 752 runs and hold an on-base percentage of .328. The Yankees have earned 228 doubles as a unit and have hit 246 balls out of the park. They have earned 725 runs batted in and 1,217 hits this season, and their team batting average is sitting at .248. New York is slugging .453 and have struck out 1,292 times, while drawing a walk on 564 occasions.

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The Yankees have an ERA of 4.02 so far this season (17th in the league), and their staff has struck out 1,286 batters. Yankees pitchers have conceded 157 long balls in addition to 632 runs (16th in baseball). Their pitching staff has walked 506 batters and their FIP comes in at 4.03 as a team on the campaign. New York has given up 1,128 hits (7.9 per 9 innings) in addition to 575 earned runs. They have a K/BB ratio of 2.54 and the pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.27.

Yankees pitchers have gone to the mound with players on base 155 times as well as having 148 appearances in high leverage situations. The bullpen have a total of 88 holds this year (9th in baseball). The Yankees relievers have earned a save percentage of 63.8% and have come into the game in 147 save situations. They have 37 saves on the year and have blown 21 out of their 58 save chances. The relievers have inherited 237 runners this season and 28.3% of those players crossed the plate. The Yankees have dispatched 479 relievers to the mound on the year.

The Yankees have transformed 70.4% of balls hit into play into outs in their 11,598 innings, ranking them 10th in baseball. The New York Mets have accounted for 3,866 putouts at this point in the season, as well as 1,251 assists and 84 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .984 which puts them in 24th in MLB, and they have turned 96 double plays.

Gil has taken the ball for 220 innings and has totaled 244 strikeouts so far in his MLB career. Gil (19-9 win-loss mark in his career) holds a FIP of 3.46 while going up against 939 hitters in the majors. His earned run average is 3.52 (86 earned runs allowed) and his WHIP is 1.277. He has surrendered 160 base hits (6.5 hits per 9 innings) and has had 121 free passes.

The Boston Red Sox hold an on-base percentage of .324 as well as a batting average of .254 on the season. They have been rung up on 1,293 instances (3rd in the league) and have accounted for 1,284 hits. Boston has 173 home runs on the campaign to go along with 692 RBIs. The Red Sox have a slugging percentage of .425 and they are earning 4.94 runs per contest (5th in MLB). They have 300 two-baggers, while getting a free base 470 times as well as notching 726 runs.

The Red Sox have a team WHIP of 1.291 and have a FIP of 4.02 as a pitching staff over the course of the season. They have a ranking of 20th in the league as a staff in total hits conceded with 1,217. The Boston pitching staff have given up 619 runs on the year while having a team ERA of 3.74 (546 earned runs surrendered). They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 8.30 (1,218 strikeouts vs 479 free passes). They have conceded 150 homers and they relinquish 4.24 runs per 9 innings (12th in baseball).

Sitting with 147 save situations, the Red Sox have 78 holds and also 26 blown saves. Boston has had relief pitchers step onto the mound in 67 save opportunities and they have come away with 41 saves. Their relief pitchers have taken the field 173 times in high leverage situations and on 143 occasions with base runners. Boston bullpen pitchers have an inherited score percentage of 32.3% out of 195 inherited runners. They sit at 21st in MLB holding a save percentage of 61.2%, and they have sent 483 relief pitchers to the hill on the year.

The Boston Red Sox have gotten 119 double plays and have a fielding rate of .980 (29th in the majors). The Red Sox have racked up 1,335 assists, 105 errors and have accumulated 3,943 putouts so far this season. In 11,829 innings on the field, the Red Sox are sitting with a defensive efficiency of 69.1% (22nd in MLB).

Giolito (71-65 win-loss record in his career) holds a 4.31 earned run average while conceding 7.9 hits per nine innings. His strikeout to walk ratio is 2.75 and he has faced 4,804 opposing hitters thus far in his career. He has surrendered a total of 548 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.255 and being the owner of a FIP of 4.2. In his career, Giolito has surrendered 1,004 base hits while he has tallied 1,184 strikeouts in 1,143 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Boston (+220)

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