New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction, 10/5/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays

Date: Sunday, October 5, 2025

Location: Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON

TV: FS1

Odds/Point Spread: New York (+132) Toronto (-160)

Rogers Centre is the location where the Toronto Blue Jays (94-68) will take on the New York Yankees (94-68) on Sunday in Game 2 of the ALDS. The odds on this game have New York at +132 and Toronto is coming in at -160. The over/under is 7.5. The starting pitchers are Max Fried and Shane Bieber.

As a squad, the New York Yankees are notching 5.2 runs per game, which has them at 1st in baseball. They have racked up 849 runs while holding a team OBP of .332. The Yankees have compiled 255 two-baggers as a squad and have knocked 274 baseballs out of the stadium. They have accumulated 820 runs batted in and 1,371 base knocks so far this year, and their team batting average is sitting at .251. New York has a slugging percentage of .455 and have been called out on strikes 1,463 times, while drawing a walk on 639 occasions.

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Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.59 and their pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.25. Yankees pitchers have allowed 175 long balls and also 685 runs (15th in the league). New York has allowed 1,239 base hits (7.7 per 9 innings) as well as 625 earned runs. The Yankees are sitting with a team ERA of 3.91 for the season (14th in baseball), and their staff has rung up 1,440 hitters. Their pitching staff has walked 557 opposing players and their FIP is 4.00 as a unit for the season.

The Yankees bullpen have recorded a save percentage of 67.2% and have entered the game in 166 save situations. The relievers have inherited 255 runners on the year and 27.5% of them ended up scoring. Yankees bullpen pitchers have entered the game with runners on 167 times in addition to having 165 appearances in high leverage situations. The Yankees have dispatched 533 relief pitchers to the hill on the campaign. The bullpen have racked up 100 holds for the season (9th in MLB). They have earned 43 saves on the campaign and have blown 21 of their 64 chances to get a save.

The New York Mets have notched a total of 4,319 putouts this season, as well as 1,389 assists and 94 errors. Their fielding rate is currently at .984 which puts them in 24th in pro baseball, and have earned 105 double plays. The Yankees have turned 70.8% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 12,957 innings on the diamond, which ranks them 6th in professional baseball.

Fried (92-41 career win-loss record) has a FIP of 2.99 while he has faced 4,415 batters during his time in the majors. He has conceded 947 base knocks (7.9 hits per nine innings) and has had 297 free passes. His earned run average is 3.04 (364 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.153. Fried has taken the ball for 1,079 innings and is sitting with 1,052 K's so far in his MLB career.

The Blue Jays hold a team SLG% of .427 and they tally 4.93 runs per game (4th in MLB). They have put up 294 two-baggers, while walking 520 times as well as putting up 798 runs. Toronto has knocked in 191 home runs on the year to go along with 771 RBIs. They have been rung up on 1,099 occasions (29th in baseball) and have earned 1,461 hits. The Toronto Blue Jays have a team OBP of .333 and a batting average of .265 so far this season.

The Blue Jays have a team WHIP of 1.273 in addition to having a FIP of 4.27 as a pitching staff over the course of the season. Their strikeout to walk ratio comes in at 8.90 (1,430 strikeouts vs 517 bases on balls). They are currently ranked 14th in MLB as a staff in total hits allowed with 1,313. They have conceded 209 home runs and they concede 4.51 runs per 9 innings (19th in MLB). The Toronto pitching staff have relinquished 721 runs this year while having a team ERA of 4.18 (668 earned runs yielded).

Toronto has called on relief pitchers to enter the contest in 65 save opportunities and they have recorded 42 saves. They are ranked 13th in baseball holding a save rate of 64.6%, and they have sent 570 relief pitchers onto the diamond on the year. Their relief pitchers have come in 156 times in high leverage situations and on 178 occasions with runners on. Toronto relievers hold an inherited score rate of 27.6% out of their 254 inherited runners. With 168 save situations, the Blue Jays have 96 holds and also 23 blown saves.

The Toronto Blue Jays have turned 118 double plays and have a fielding rate of .985 (18th in baseball). The Blue Jays have recorded 1,272 assists, 86 errors and have 4,314 putouts this season. Out of their 12,942 innings played, the Blue Jays have accumulated a defensive efficiency of 70.0% (14th in MLB).

Thus far in his career, Bieber has surrendered 786 base hits while he has totaled 995 punch outs in 883 frames. He has given up a total of 318 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.111 and having a FIP of 3.2. He has a K/BB ratio of 5.10 and he has faced 3,574 batters thus far in his career. Bieber (66-34 win-loss record in his career) holds a 3.24 earned run average and has surrendered 8.0 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take New York (+132)

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