Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, 9/25/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds

Date: Thursday, September 25, 2025

Location: Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH

TV: FanDuel Sports Network Ohio

Odds/Point Spread: Pittsburgh (+125) Cincinnati (-145)

The Pittsburgh Pirates (68-89) are traveling to Great American Ball Park on Thursday where they will compete against the Cincinnati Reds (80-77). The moneyline on this contest has the Pirates at +125 and the Reds open at -145. The total has been set at 8.5. The pitchers taking the mound are Braxton Ashcraft and Nick Lodolo.

As a unit, the Pittsburgh Pirates are scoring 3.6 runs per outing, which is 30th in the league. They have a total of 565 runs while holding a team on-base percentage of .305. The Pirates have earned 236 doubles as a squad and have smacked 113 balls out of the park. They have 544 runs batted in and 1,203 hits so far this season, and their average at the plate is sitting at .231. Pittsburgh has a slugging percentage of .350 and have been rung up 1,371 times, while taking a walk on 515 occasions.

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They have accrued a K/BB ratio of 2.75 and the pitching staff holds a WHIP of 1.22. Pirates pitchers have given up 148 home runs in addition to 632 total runs (6th in baseball). Pittsburgh has given up 1,228 base hits (8.0 per 9 innings) and also 587 earned runs. The Pirates are sitting with a team earned run average of 3.81 on the campaign (7th in MLB), and the staff has struck out 1,264 batters. Their pitching staff has walked 460 opposing players and their FIP is 3.86 as a squad so far this season.

The Pirates have sent 493 relievers to the mound on the season. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 212 base runners on the campaign with 36.3% of them earned a run for their team. They have earned 35 saves on the season and have blown 24 out of their 59 save opportunities. The Pirates relievers have a save percentage of 59.3% and have entered the game in 131 save situations. The relief pitchers have racked up 69 holds this season (28th in the league). Pirates bullpen pitchers have come into the game with runners on base 138 times and also have had 152 appearances in high leverage situations.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have accumulated 4,157 putouts for the season, as well as 1,299 assists and 75 errors. Their fielding rate is currently at .986 which puts them in 13th in MLB, and they have turned 115 double plays. The Pirates have turned 70.7% of baseballs in play into outs out of 12,471 innings, which ranks them 7th in baseball.

Ashcraft (4-3 career mark) holds a FIP of 2.59 while he has faced 271 opposing batters in the major leagues. He has allowed 55 base hits (7.6 hits per nine innings) and has 23 walks. His ERA is 2.63 (19 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.198. Ashcraft has thrown 65 innings and has totaled 66 strikeouts during his MLB career.

The Cincinnati Reds have accounted for a team OBP of .315 as well as a team batting average of .244 so far this season. They have struck out on 1,363 occasions (9th in MLB) and have tallied 1,289 hits. Cincinnati is sitting with 162 HRs on the campaign and 661 runs batted in. The Reds have a slugging percentage of .392 and they are scoring 4.45 runs per game (14th in MLB). They have tallied 243 doubles, while walking 512 times and earning 699 runs.

The Reds have a team WHIP of 1.230 with a FIP of 4.16 as a pitching staff on the year. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 8.60 (1,326 strikeouts vs 477 walks). They are currently ranked 8th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits surrendered with 1,232. They have allowed 188 dingers and they relinquish 4.32 runs per 9 innings (13th in baseball). The Cincinnati pitching staff have allowed 667 runs so far this year and come in with a team ERA of 3.91 (604 earned runs surrendered).

Cincinnati relief pitchers have an inherited score rate of 32.4% of 213 inherited base runners. Their relief pitchers have come in 164 times in high leverage situations and also on 143 occasions with runners on base. With 161 save situations, the Reds have accrued 98 holds and 22 blown saves. They are currently ranked 16th in MLB with a save rate of 63.3%, and they have dispatched 531 relievers to the hill on the year. Cincinnati has had relief pitchers step onto the hill in 60 save opportunities and they have earned 38 saves.

In 12,501 innings played, the Reds have a defensive efficiency of 71.0% (4th in pro baseball). The Cincinnati Reds have turned 98 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .984 (22nd in pro baseball). The Reds have accrued 1,203 assists, 85 errors and have earned 4,167 putouts this year.

During his pro baseball career, Lodolo has surrendered 375 hits while he has totaled 444 strikeouts in 402 innings. Lodolo (23-22 win-loss mark in his career) has earned a 4.12 ERA while surrendering 8.4 hits per 9 innings. He has conceded 184 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.216 and a FIP of 4.1. His K/BB ratio is 3.89 and he has faced 1,713 opposing hitters in his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Pittsburgh (+125)

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