San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Prediction, 7/23/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins

Date: Wednesday, July 23, 2025

Location: loanDepot park in Miami, FL

TV: FanDuel Sports Network Florida

Odds/Point Spread: San Diego (-122) Miami (+102)

The Miami Marlins (46-53) will try to beat the San Diego Padres (55-45) at loanDepot park on Wednesday. The line on this matchup has San Diego at -122 while Miami is coming in at +102. The betting total is set at 8. The pitchers who are expected to start are Dylan Cease and Sandy Alcantara.

As a unit, the San Diego Padres are scoring 4.0 runs per contest, which is 25th in the league. They have 402 runs scored and have an OBP of .316. The Padres have accounted for 147 two-baggers as a unit and have smacked 86 baseballs out of the park. They have 377 RBI's as well as 816 base knocks this season, and their average at the plate sits at .246. San Diego has a slugging % of .375 and have struck out 704 times, while taking a walk on 325 occasions.

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The Padres are sitting with a team ERA of 3.58 on the season (3rd in baseball), and they have struck out 853 hitters. Padres pitchers have conceded 99 long balls and also 384 runs (4th in MLB). Their pitching staff has walked 331 opposing hitters and their FIP sits at 3.87 as a unit on the campaign. San Diego has surrendered 757 hits (7.7 per 9 innings) as well as 352 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.58 and their pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.23.

The Padres bullpen have recorded a save rate of 74.5% and have stepped onto the mound in 119 save situations. The relief pitchers have inherited 165 base runners so far this year with 30.9% of those runners crossed home plate. Padres pitchers have stepped onto the hill with players on base 119 times and also have had 148 appearances in high leverage situations. The Padres have dispatched 353 relievers to the mound this season. The bullpen have earned 70 holds for the year (4th in the league). They have accumulated 35 saves for the season and have blown 12 out of their 47 chances to get a save.

The Padres have turned 71.1% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 7,965 innings, which has them sitting 7th in professional baseball. The San Diego Padres have a total of 2,655 putouts on the campaign, as well as 763 assists and 49 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding at .986 which has them ranked 20th in MLB, and have 73 double plays.

Cease has taken the mound for 955 innings and has racked up 1,155 K's in his pro baseball career. His ERA is 3.85 (409 earned runs allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.258. He has conceded 804 hits (7.6 hits per 9 innings) with 398 free passes. Cease (60-55 win-loss record in his career) is the owner of a FIP of 3.80 while he has gone up against 4,046 opposing hitters in the majors.

Miami has recorded 91 long balls this year as well as 408 RBIs. They have 165 doubles, while taking a walk 293 times and recording 424 runs. The Miami Marlins have a team on-base percentage of .315 and a team batting average of .253 on the campaign. The Marlins have a team slugging % of .392 and they tally 4.28 runs per outing (18th in the league). They have struck out on 781 occasions (25th in MLB) and have earned a total of 858 hits.

The Marlins are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.320 in addition to having a FIP of 4.14 as a squad on the season. They currently have a strikeout to walk ratio of 7.90 (778 strikeouts vs 315 walks). They come in at 23rd in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits allowed with 849. They have surrendered 108 long balls and they yield 4.90 runs per 9 innings (24th in MLB). The Miami pitching staff have conceded 480 runs for the season while having an ERA of 4.53 (444 earned runs relinquished).

With 93 save situations, the Marlins have 53 holds and also 16 blown saves. Miami has called on relievers to enter the game in 39 save opportunities and they have earned 23 saves. Their relievers have come in 108 times in high leverage situations and on 80 occasions with runners on. Miami bullpen pitchers have an inherited score rate of 31.3% out of their 115 inherited runners. They are currently ranked 20th in baseball with a save percentage of 59.0%, and they have dispatched 314 relievers onto the field on the campaign.

The Miami Marlins have turned 69 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .986 (17th in the majors). The Marlins have 869 assists, 50 errors and have accounted for 2,646 putouts so far this season. In 7,938 innings played, the Marlins hold a defensive efficiency of 69.5% (19th in professional baseball).

During his MLB career, Alcantara has surrendered 875 hits while totaling 862 punch outs in 997 frames. He has conceded a total of 409 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.190 and having a FIP of 3.6. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.76 and he has faced 4,117 batters thus far in his career. Alcantara (45-64 career mark) has a 3.69 ERA while allowing 7.9 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Miami (+102)

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