San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction, 7/26/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals

Date: Saturday, July 26, 2025

Location: Busch Stadium in St. Louis, MO

TV: FanDuel Sports Network Midwest

Odds/Point Spread: San Diego (-182) St. Louis (+150)

The St. Louis Cardinals (52-51) will try to beat the San Diego Padres (55-47) at Busch Stadium on Saturday. The moneyline on this game has San Diego at -182 and St. Louis is sitting at +150. The total has been set at 8.5. The pitchers who are expected to start will be Randy Vasquez and Matthew Liberatore.

The Padres have hit 153 two-baggers as a team and have hit 86 baseballs out of the stadium. San Diego has a slugging % of .374 and have struck out 717 times, while drawing a walk on 326 occasions. As a squad, the San Diego Padres are putting up 4.0 runs/g, which is 25th in the league. They have accumulated 382 runs batted in and 830 base knocks this season, while their average at the plate is at .245. They have tallied 407 runs and have an OBP of .314.

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Their strikeout to walk ratio is 2.58 and the pitching staff has a team WHIP of 1.23. Padres pitchers have relinquished 100 home runs in addition to 391 total runs (5th in baseball). San Diego has allowed 773 base hits (7.7 per 9 innings) in addition to 358 earned runs. The Padres hold a team earned run average of 3.58 over the course of the season (5th in baseball), and their staff has struck out 868 hitters. Their pitching staff has walked 336 opposing batters and their FIP sits at 3.86 as a squad over the course of the season.

The Padres bullpen have a save percentage of 74.5% and have entered the game in 119 save situations. The relievers have inherited 170 runners this season with 30.0% of them crossed home plate. Padres relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill with runners on base 122 times as well as having 149 appearances in high leverage situations. The Padres have sent 357 relievers to the mound on the year. The relief pitchers have recorded 70 holds over the course of the season (6th in the league). They have 35 saves so far this season and have not converted 12 out of their 47 chances to get a save.

The Padres have transformed 71.0% of baseballs in play into outs in their 8,109 innings on the field, which has them ranked 8th in pro baseball. The San Diego Padres have amassed 2,703 putouts on the year, in addition to 774 assists and 51 errors. Their fielding rate is currently at .986 which puts them in 21st in MLB, and have a total of 76 double plays.

Vasquez has taken the hill for 234 innings and has accumulated 145 punch outs during his MLB career. His earned run average is 4.07 (106 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.435. He has given up 242 base knocks (9.3 hits per nine innings) with 94 walks. Vasquez (9-13 mark in his career) sits with a FIP of 4.01 while going up against 1,028 opposing batters in the major leagues.

The Cardinals hold a slugging % of .393 and they tally 4.48 runs per game (13th in MLB). They have hit 182 two-baggers, while walking 319 times and notching 461 runs. St. Louis has knocked in 100 home runs on the season as well as 440 RBIs. They have been called out on strikes on 794 instances (25th in the league) and have totaled 881 hits. The St. Louis Cardinals have an OBP of .321 in addition to a batting average of .252 on the season.

The Cardinals hold a team WHIP of 1.286 and are the owners of a FIP of 3.86 as a team on the season. They are sitting at 24th in MLB as a staff in total hits given up with 890. The St. Louis pitching staff have conceded 465 runs this season while holding a team ERA of 4.22 (426 earned runs conceded). They currently have a strikeout to walk ratio of 7.50 (754 strikeouts against 279 free passes). They have yielded 99 home runs and they yield 4.60 runs per 9 innings (22nd in baseball).

With 98 save situations, the Cardinals have amassed 57 holds in addition to 14 blown saves. St. Louis has called on bullpen pitchers to enter the contest in 38 save chances and they have tallied 24 saves. Their bullpen pitchers have come in 102 times in high leverage situations and on 99 occasions with runners on. St. Louis relievers have an inherited score percentage of 34.3% out of 134 inherited base runners. They sit at 15th in MLB holding a save percentage of 63.2%, and they have sent 306 relievers onto the diamond so far this year.

The St. Louis Cardinals have turned 78 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .989 (4th in baseball). The Cardinals have recorded 991 assists, 41 errors and have earned 2,729 putouts this year. In their 8,187 innings on the field, the Cardinals are sitting with a defensive efficiency of 69.6% (17th in pro baseball).

Liberatore (14-19 record in his career) has earned a 4.69 earned run average while allowing 9.3 hits per 9 innings. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.47 and he has faced 1,216 batters in his career. He has surrendered 147 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.364 and having a FIP of 4.6. In his career, Liberatore has allowed 292 base hits while accumulating 230 strikeouts in 282 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Parlay's Pundit's Pick: Take St. Louis (+150) and under 8.5 runs

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