St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, 9/28/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs

Date: Sunday, September 28, 2025

Location: Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL

TV: Marquee

Odds/Point Spread: St. Louis (+125) Chicago (-150)

The Chicago Cubs (89-70) will compete against the St. Louis Cardinals (78-81) at Wrigley Field on Sunday. The line on this matchup has the Cardinals at +125 and the Cubs are opening at -150. The total comes in at 9. The expected starting pitchers will be Kyle Leahy and Javier Assad.

The Cardinals have compiled 261 two-baggers as a unit and have hit 146 balls out of the stadium. St. Louis is slugging .380 and have been called out on strikes 1,284 times, while drawing a walk on 472 occasions. As a squad, the St. Louis Cardinals are putting up 4.3 runs per game, which is 18th in the league. They have 649 runs batted in and 1,313 hits on the year, and their team batting average is .246. They have racked up 685 runs scored and hold an on-base percentage of .316.

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The Cardinals have compiled a team earned run average of 4.23 on the campaign (20th in the league), and they have struck out 1,185 batters. Cardinals pitchers have surrendered 161 long balls in addition to 733 runs in total (22nd in the league). Their pitching staff has walked 453 opposing players and their FIP sits at 4.01 as a unit on the year. St. Louis has conceded 1,406 hits (9.0 per 9 innings) and 662 earned runs. They have a K/BB ratio of 2.62 and their pitching staff holds a WHIP of 1.32.

Cardinals pitchers have entered the contest with opponents on base 153 times as well as having 158 appearances in high leverage situations. The bullpen have 92 holds this season (11th in MLB). The Cardinals relief pitchers have earned a save rate of 64.6% and have entered the game in 161 save situations. They have accumulated 42 saves on the campaign and have blown 23 out of their 65 chances to save the game. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 213 base runners on the season and 32.9% of them earned a run for their team. The Cardinals have sent 476 relievers to the hill on the year.

The St. Louis Cardinals have accumulated 4,224 putouts over the course of the season, as well as 1,533 assists and 80 errors. Their fielding rate sits at .986 which ranks 12th in pro baseball, and have accumulated 122 double plays. The Cardinals have converted 68.9% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 12,672 innings on the diamond, which has them ranked 23rd in the majors.

Leahy has taken the mound for 135 innings and has tallied 114 K's in his MLB career. Leahy (5-4 mark in his career) sits with a FIP of 3.67 while going up against 560 batters in the major leagues. His ERA is 3.73 (56 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.229. He has surrendered 123 hits (8.2 hits per 9 innings) and has had 43 free passes.

The Cubs hold a team slugging % of .427 and they are recording 4.86 runs per game (7th in the league). They have recorded 264 doubles, while walking 546 times and scoring 772 runs. Chicago has a total of 214 home runs for the year to go along with 750 RBIs. They have struck out on 1,253 occasions (25th in baseball) and have accounted for 1,343 base hits. The Chicago Cubs have compiled a team OBP of .320 and a batting average of .249 so far this season.

The Cubs hold a team WHIP of 1.183 in addition to having a FIP of 4.21 as a staff on the year. They rank 10th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits allowed with 1,266. The Chicago pitching staff have conceded 645 runs on the year and come in with a team ERA of 3.84 (601 earned runs yielded). Their K/BB ratio is 7.80 (1,228 strikeouts vs 399 free passes). They have surrendered 200 home runs and they surrender 4.12 runs per 9 innings (8th in the league).

Sitting with 172 save situations, the Cubs have earned 106 holds and also 20 blown saves. Chicago has had relievers enter the game in 63 save chances and they have recorded 43 saves. Their bullpen pitchers have come in 157 times in high leverage situations and also on 99 occasions with runners on. Chicago relievers have an inherited score percentage of 33.8% out of their 139 inherited runners. They rank 4th in MLB holding a save rate of 68.3%, and they have sent 514 relief pitchers onto the diamond over the course of the season.

The Chicago Cubs have turned 116 double plays and have accounted for a fielding rate of .989 (3rd in professional baseball). The Cubs have racked up 1,323 assists, 60 errors and have accounted for 4,224 putouts on the campaign. In their 12,672 innings on the field, the Cubs have earned a defensive efficiency of 71.9% (2nd in MLB).

So far in his MLB career, Assad has given up 301 hits while he has accumulated 265 K's in 325 innings. He has allowed 126 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.341 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.4. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 1.96 and he has gone up against 1,387 hitters thus far in his career. Assad (17-12 career win-loss mark) holds a 3.49 earned run average and has conceded 8.3 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Chicago (-150)

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