Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, 7/11/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Friday, July 11, 2025

Location: Fenway Park in Boston, MA

TV: NESN

Odds/Point Spread: Tampa Bay (-144) Boston (+120)

The Boston Red Sox (47-45) are hosting the Tampa Bay Rays (49-42) at Fenway Park on Friday. The line on this contest has the Rays at -144 while the Red Sox are coming in at +120. The total has been set at 8. The pitchers taking the mound are Drew Rasmussen and Hunter Dobbins.

Tampa Bay has a slugging percentage of .409 and have been called out on strikes 752 times, while being walked on 272 occasions. They have earned 410 runs batted in as well as 795 hits on the year, while their team batting average is at .259. The Rays have earned 141 two-baggers as a team and have hit 101 baseballs out of the park. They have a total of 432 runs scored and hold an on-base percentage of .322. As a team, the Tampa Bay Rays are putting up 4.8 runs per outing, which is 7th in the league.

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The Rays have compiled a team earned run average of 3.78 for the year (14th in the league), and the staff has struck out 761 hitters. Rays pitchers have conceded 123 home runs and 367 runs in total (14th in MLB). They have walked 252 players from the other team and their FIP comes in at 4.25 as a squad on the season. Tampa Bay has given up 725 base hits (8.0 per 9 innings) in addition to 342 earned runs. They have accumulated a K/BB ratio of 3.02 and their pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.20.

Rays bullpen pitchers have come into the game with opponents on base 68 times in addition to having 87 appearances in high leverage situations. The relievers have accumulated 50 holds on the campaign (17th in MLB). The Rays relief pitchers have accumulated a save percentage of 60.0% and have stepped onto the mound in 86 save situations. They have accumulated 21 saves for the year and have blown 14 of their 35 save opportunities. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 99 base runners for the season with 38.4% of those players crossed the plate. The Rays have sent 287 relief pitchers to the mound on the year.

The Tampa Bay Rays have notched a total of 2,440 putouts thus far, as well as 831 assists and 45 errors. Their fielding percentage is currently at .986 which has them ranked 13th in MLB, and have 92 double plays. The Rays have turned 71.2% of balls in play into outs out of 7,320 innings on the field, which has them sitting at 5th in professional baseball.

Rasmussen has taken the hill for 399 innings and has tallied 377 punch outs in his pro baseball career. Rasmussen (27-17 record in his career) holds a FIP of 2.89 while he has gone up against 1,600 hitters in the majors. His ERA is 2.93 (130 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 1.072. He has conceded 325 base knocks (7.3 hits per nine innings) and has had 103 free passes.

Boston has a total of 114 home runs so far this year and 437 runs batted in. They have recorded 186 doubles, while walking 300 times as well as putting up 457 runs. The Boston Red Sox have tallied an OBP of .325 and a batting average of .255 over the course of the season. The Red Sox hold a slugging percentage of .430 and they are recording 4.97 runs per outing (6th in the league). They have struck out on 843 occasions (3rd in the league) and have totaled 813 base hits.

The Boston pitching staff have conceded 418 runs over the course of the season while having an ERA of 3.94 (361 earned runs relinquished). They have given up 87 dingers and they give up 4.56 runs per 9 innings (21st in MLB). The Red Sox have a WHIP of 1.326 and have a FIP of 3.88 as a team so far this year. Their K/BB ratio sits at 8.40 (772 strikeouts against 316 free passes). They come in at 24th in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits surrendered with 777.

With 93 save situations, the Red Sox have earned 49 holds and 18 blown saves. Boston has had bullpen pitchers enter the contest in 42 save chances and they have converted 24 saves. Their relievers have stepped onto the mound 115 times in high leverage situations and on 95 occasions with base runners. Boston bullpen pitchers have an inherited score percentage of 33.6% of 128 inherited runners. They sit at 23rd in the league with a save percentage of 57.1%, and they have dispatched 304 bullpen pitchers to the mound this year.

The Boston Red Sox have turned 79 double plays and have earned a fielding percentage of .978 (29th in MLB). The Red Sox have 847 assists, 75 errors and are sitting with 2,474 putouts this season. In 7,422 innings played, the Red Sox have accumulated a defensive efficiency of 68.1% (27th in the majors).

During his MLB career, Dobbins has surrendered 59 hits while accumulating 43 K's in 59 innings pitched. He has surrendered 27 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.269 and a FIP of 4.1. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.69 and he has faced 248 opposing batters during his career. Dobbins (4-1 mark in his career) has a 4.11 ERA while surrendering 9.0 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (-144)

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