Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, 7/12/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Saturday, July 12, 2025

Location: Fenway Park in Boston, MA

TV: NESN

Odds/Point Spread: Tampa Bay (-150) Boston (+125)

The Boston Red Sox (50-45) will try to beat the Tampa Bay Rays (50-44) at Fenway Park on Saturday. The line on this matchup has Tampa Bay at -150 while Boston opens at +125. The total is 8. The pitchers expected to start will be Shane Baz and Garrett Crochet.

Tampa Bay has a slugging rate of .411 and have struck out 773 times, while drawing a walk on 278 occasions. They have accrued 422 RBI's as well as 826 base knocks for the season, while their batting average comes in at .260. The Rays have accounted for 146 doubles as a team and have knocked 105 baseballs out of the park. They have accounted for 444 runs while having a team on-base percentage of .322. As a squad, the Tampa Bay Rays are notching 4.7 runs/g, which ranks them 7th in MLB.

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The Rays hold a team ERA of 3.79 so far this season (11th in the league), and they have rung up 784 batters. Rays pitchers have yielded 125 home runs and also 378 total runs (12th in baseball). Their pitching staff has walked 267 batters and their FIP comes in at 4.26 as a team on the year. Tampa Bay has surrendered 741 base hits (8.0 per 9 innings) in addition to 353 earned runs. They have accumulated a K/BB ratio of 2.94 and the pitching staff has recorded a WHIP of 1.20.

Rays relief pitchers have gone to the mound with players on base 70 times as well as having 89 appearances in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers have recorded 52 holds this year (17th in MLB). The Rays relievers have earned a save rate of 58.3% and have stepped onto the mound in 89 save situations. They have recorded 21 saves so far this season and have not converted 15 of 36 chances to save the game. The relievers have inherited 102 base runners this season and 37.3% of those runners crossed home plate. The Rays have sent 295 relief pitchers to the hill so far this season.

The Tampa Bay Rays have a tally of 2,515 putouts so far this season, as well as 855 assists and 45 errors. Their fielding percentage is at .987 which puts them in 13th in baseball, and they have turned 93 double plays. The Rays have converted 71.4% of balls in play into outs out of 7,545 innings, ranking them 5th in pro baseball.

Baz has thrown 222 innings and has earned 221 punch outs thus far in his career. Baz (15-9 career mark) has a FIP of 3.79 while he has faced 919 batters in the majors. His earned run average is 3.84 (95 ER's allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.169. He has given up 183 hits (7.4 hits per nine innings) with 77 free passes.

Boston has accumulated 120 home runs for the season to go along with 461 runs batted in. They have 192 two-baggers, while getting a free base 311 times as well as scoring 481 runs. The Boston Red Sox have accounted for an OBP of .327 and a batting average of .256 on the campaign. The Red Sox have a team slugging % of .434 and they have an average of 5.06 runs per contest (5th in baseball). They have struck out on 862 instances (3rd in MLB) and have earned 843 hits.

The Red Sox have a team WHIP of 1.312 in addition to having a FIP of 3.88 as a squad on the campaign. They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 8.40 (795 strikeouts against 320 free passes). They are currently ranked 22nd in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits allowed with 797. They have yielded 91 home runs and they concede 4.49 runs per 9 innings (21st in MLB). The Boston pitching staff have relinquished 425 runs for the year while holding a team ERA of 3.89 (368 earned runs surrendered).

Boston bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score rate of 33.6% out of their 128 inherited base runners. Their relievers have stepped onto the hill 118 times in high leverage situations in addition to 95 occasions with base runners. Sitting with 95 save situations, the Red Sox have recorded 50 holds and also 18 blown saves. They are ranked 22nd in the league holding a save percentage of 58.1%, and they have dispatched 309 bullpen pitchers to the mound so far this year. Boston has had relief pitchers take the mound in 43 save chances and they have converted 25 saves.

The Boston Red Sox have turned 82 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .978 (29th in professional baseball). The Red Sox have recorded 876 assists, 76 errors and have accounted for 2,555 putouts for the year. In 7,665 innings played, the Red Sox hold a efficiency on defense of 68.4% (26th in baseball).

In his career, Crochet has surrendered 277 hits while totaling 445 K's in 339 innings. He has surrendered 112 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.132 and being the owner of a FIP of 2.9. His K/BB ratio is 4.16 and he has faced 1,394 batters in his MLB career. Crochet (18-23 win-loss record in his career) is the owner of a 2.97 earned run average and has conceded 7.4 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (-150)

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