Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Prediction, 7/31/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees

Date: Thursday, July 31, 2025

Location: Yankee Stadium in Bronx, NY

TV: YES

Odds/Point Spread: Tampa Bay (+110) New York (-132)

The Tampa Bay Rays (54-54) are traveling to Yankee Stadium on Thursday where they will attempt to beat the New York Yankees (58-49). The odds on this game have Tampa Bay at +110 while New York is sitting at -132. The total is set at 9. The pitchers expected to start will be Ryan Pepiot and Marcus Stroman.

As a squad, the Tampa Bay Rays are putting up 4.6 runs per game, which puts them at 10th in baseball. They have racked up 492 runs scored while holding a team on-base percentage of .321. The Rays have accounted for 161 two-baggers as a unit and have knocked 116 balls out of the stadium. They have 462 runs batted in and 920 base knocks so far this season, and their team batting average is sitting at .255. Tampa Bay has a slugging percentage of .402 and have been called out on strikes 890 times, while drawing a walk on 328 occasions.

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The Rays have an ERA of 3.86 so far this year (14th in MLB), and the staff has struck out 888 batters. Rays pitchers have surrendered 137 long balls and also 436 runs (10th in baseball). They have walked 302 opposing hitters and their FIP comes in at 4.18 as a unit over the course of the season. Tampa Bay has relinquished 847 base hits (8.0 per 9 innings) as well as 407 earned runs. Their K/BB ratio is 2.94 and their pitching staff has recorded a WHIP of 1.21.

The Rays have dispatched 331 relief pitchers to the mound so far this season. The relief pitchers have inherited 111 base runners over the course of the season and 36.9% of them earned a run for their team. They have recorded 24 saves on the season and have blown 17 of 41 chances to get a save. The Rays relief pitchers have earned a save rate of 58.5% and have come into the game in 101 save situations. The bullpen are sitting with 59 holds for the year (18th in the league). Rays relief pitchers have gone to the mound with opponents on base 75 times and also have had 100 appearances in high leverage situations.

The Tampa Bay Rays have amassed 2,849 putouts on the year, in addition to 960 assists and 48 errors. Their fielding rate is currently at .988 which has them sitting 10th in MLB, and they have turned 101 double plays. The Rays have transformed 71.2% of baseballs in play into outs in their 8,547 innings, which has them sitting at 6th in pro baseball.

Pepiot (19-17 record in his career) sits with a FIP of 3.29 while he has faced 1,369 batters in the major leagues. He has given up 258 hits (6.9 hits per nine innings) with 122 free passes. His earned run average is 3.34 (124 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.137. Pepiot has taken the ball for 334 innings and has accumulated 346 strikeouts thus far in his career.

New York is sitting with 168 home runs for the year to go along with 523 RBIs. They have hit 180 two-baggers, while getting a free base 400 times as well as notching 545 runs. The New York Yankees are sitting with an on-base percentage of .332 and a batting average of .253 on the season. The Yankees have a team slugging % of .451 and they score 5.14 runs per game (3rd in the league). They have struck out on 928 occasions (7th in the league) and have accounted for 911 base hits.

The Yankees have a WHIP of 1.251 in addition to having a FIP of 4.02 as a squad on the campaign. They come in at 3rd in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits relinquished with 808. The New York pitching staff have surrendered 452 runs for the year while having a team ERA of 4.00 (416 earned runs surrendered). Their strikeout to walk ratio is 9.00 (934 strikeouts vs 363 free passes). They have given up 119 long balls and they concede 4.35 runs per 9 innings (16th in the league).

With 100 save situations, the Yankees have amassed 59 holds in addition to 12 blown saves. New York has called on relievers to take the mound in 40 save opportunities and they have recorded 28 saves. Their bullpen pitchers have taken the field 102 times in high leverage situations in addition to 116 occasions with runners on. New York relief pitchers have an inherited score rate of 26.0% out of their 177 inherited base runners. They are currently ranked 4th in MLB holding a save percentage of 70.0%, and they have sent 351 bullpen pitchers to the mound so far this season.

The New York Yankees have turned 66 double plays and have accounted for a fielding rate of .985 (21st in professional baseball). The Yankees have racked up 894 assists, 55 errors and have accumulated 2,810 putouts so far this season. In their 8,430 innings on the field, the Yankees have earned a defensive efficiency of 71.1% (7th in MLB).

Stroman (89-87 career record) has earned a 3.78 earned run average and has surrendered 8.8 hits per 9 innings. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.71 and he has faced 6,252 hitters in his MLB career. He has allowed 626 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.283 and a FIP of 3.7. So far in his career, Stroman has conceded 1,462 base hits while totaling 1,227 strikeouts in 1,492 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (+110)

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