Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Prediction, 10/7/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees

Date: Tuesday, October 7, 2025

Location: Yankee Stadium in Bronx, NY

TV: FS1

Odds/Point Spread: Toronto (+125) New York (-150)

The New York Yankees (94-68) will try to defeat the Toronto Blue Jays (94-68) at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday in Game 3 of the ALDS. The Jays lead the series 2-0. The moneyline on this game has the Blue Jays at +125 while the Yankees are opening at -150. The over/under comes in at 7.5. The expected starting pitchers will be Shane Bieber and Carlos Rodon.

The Blue Jays have accrued 294 doubles as a unit and have hit 191 balls out of the stadium. Toronto is slugging .427 and have been rung up 1,099 times, while being walked on 520 occasions. As a unit, the Toronto Blue Jays are putting up 4.9 runs per game, which puts them at 4th in baseball. They have 771 runs batted in as well as 1,461 hits on the season, and their average at the plate comes in at .265. They have earned a total of 798 runs while holding a team OBP of .333.

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The Blue Jays have compiled a team earned run average of 4.18 so far this year (19th in the league), and the staff has rung up 1,430 batters. Blue Jays pitchers have relinquished 209 home runs and 721 runs (19th in the league). Their pitching staff has walked 517 opposing batters and their FIP is 4.27 as a team this year. Toronto has given up 1,313 base hits (8.2 per 9 innings) as well as 668 earned runs. They have a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.77 and the pitching staff holds a collective WHIP of 1.27.

The Blue Jays have dispatched 570 relief pitchers to the mound this season. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 254 runners so far this year and 27.6% of them ended up crossing the plate. They have accumulated 42 saves this year and have blown 23 out of their 65 save opportunities. The Blue Jays bullpen have a save percentage of 64.6% and have entered the game in 168 save situations. The bullpen have accumulated 96 holds on the year (10th in the league). Blue Jays bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the hill with runners on 178 times as well as having 156 appearances in high leverage situations.

The Toronto Blue Jays have earned 4,314 putouts on the campaign, in addition to 1,272 assists and 86 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding at .985 which puts them in 18th in MLB, and have 118 double plays. The Blue Jays have transformed 70.0% of baseballs in play into outs in their 12,942 innings on the field, which has them sitting 14th in professional baseball.

Bieber has taken the ball for 883 innings and has 995 strikeouts during his pro baseball career. Bieber (66-34 career win-loss mark) has earned a FIP of 3.19 while facing 3,574 opposing hitters in the major leagues. His earned run average is 3.24 (318 ER's allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.111. He has given up 786 base knocks (8.0 hits per nine innings) and has 195 free passes.

The New York Yankees have earned an on-base percentage of .332 in addition to a batting average of .251 on the year. They have struck out on 1,463 occasions (3rd in MLB) and have totaled 1,371 base knocks. New York has compiled 274 home runs so far this season as well as 820 runs batted in. The Yankees hold a slugging percentage of .455 and they are earning 5.24 runs per game (1st in MLB). They have 255 doubles, while taking a walk 639 times and putting up 849 runs.

The Yankees have a team WHIP of 1.248 in addition to having a FIP of 4.00 as a unit this year. Their K/BB ratio is 9.00 (1,440 strikeouts vs 557 walks). They come in at 4th in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 1,239. They have conceded 175 dingers and they surrender 4.28 runs per 9 innings (14th in baseball). The New York pitching staff have given up 685 runs so far this year while holding a team ERA of 3.91 (625 earned runs surrendered).

New York relievers hold an inherited score rate of 27.5% of 255 inherited base runners. Their bullpen pitchers have taken the field 165 times in high leverage situations and also on 167 occasions with runners on. Sitting with 166 save situations, the Yankees have amassed 100 holds and 21 blown saves. They sit at 7th in MLB with a save rate of 67.2%, and they have dispatched 533 bullpen pitchers to the hill for the season. New York has had relievers enter the contest in 64 save chances and they have walked away with 43 saves.

In 12,957 innings played, the Yankees have accumulated a efficiency on defense of 70.8% (6th in baseball). The New York Yankees have turned 105 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .984 (24th in pro baseball). The Yankees have recorded 1,389 assists, 94 errors and are sitting with 4,319 putouts for the year.

Rodon (93-72 career mark) holds a 3.74 earned run average while giving up 7.6 hits per 9 innings. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.95 and he has faced 5,378 opposing batters in his pro baseball career. He has given up a total of 532 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.219 and having a FIP of 3.7. During his pro baseball career, Rodon has allowed 1,085 hits while accumulating 1,409 strikeouts in 1,281 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take New York (-150)

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