Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Prediction, 9/30/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees

Date: Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Location: Yankee Stadium in Bronx, NY

TV: NBC

Odds/Point Spread: Boston (+103) New York (-124)

The New York Yankees (93-68) will compete against the Boston Red Sox (87-75) at Yankee Stadium on Wednesday in Game 2 of their AL Wild Card series. The odds on this game have Boston at +103 while New York is priced at -124. The over/under is 7.5. The expected starting pitchers are Sonny Gray and Max Fried.

As a unit, the Boston Red Sox are putting up 4.3 runs per game, which has them sitting at 23rd in baseball. They have notched a total of 689 runs while having a team OBP of .319. The Red Sox have accounted for 285 two-baggers as a team and have hit 163 baseballs out of the stadium. They have 658 RBI's in addition to 1,326 hits so far this year, and their team batting average sits at .245. Boston is slugging .397 and have been called out on strikes 1,326 times, while taking a walk on 517 occasions.

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They have accumulated a K/BB ratio of 2.98 and their pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.23. Red Sox pitchers have allowed 153 home runs and 611 runs in total (3rd in the league). Boston has conceded 1,307 hits (8.2 per 9 innings) in addition to 566 earned runs. The Red Sox are sitting with a team ERA of 3.54 so far this year (3rd in the league), and the staff has struck out 1,398 hitters. Their pitching staff has walked 469 players from the other team and their FIP comes in at 3.66 as a team on the campaign.

The Red Sox relievers have earned a save rate of 76.7% and have come into the game in 156 save situations. They have accumulated 46 saves on the year and have blown 14 of their 60 chances to get a save. The relievers have inherited 166 runners over the course of the season with 28.9% of them crossing home plate. Red Sox pitchers have stepped onto the hill with runners on base 126 times as well as having 149 appearances in high leverage situations. The Red Sox have dispatched 488 relief pitchers to the hill for the year. The relievers have tallied 94 holds over the course of the season (9th in baseball).

The Red Sox have turned 69.4% of balls hit into play into outs in their 12,960 innings, which ranks them 20th in pro baseball. The Boston Red Sox have a tally of 4,320 putouts for the season, in addition to 1,420 assists and 82 errors. Their fielding rate is currently at .986 which ranks 15th in professional baseball, and they have turned 124 double plays.

Gray has taken the hill for 2,087 innings and has accounted for 2,074 punch outs so far in his career. Gray (143-107 career win-loss mark) has earned a FIP of 3.46 while he has faced 8,635 opposing batters during his time in the majors. His earned run average is 3.51 (814 earned runs allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.193. He has allowed 1,823 hits (7.9 hits per 9 innings) and has had 667 free passes.

The Yankees have a team slugging percentage of .409 and they are recording 4.59 runs per contest (8th in MLB). They have put up 224 two-baggers, while taking a walk 572 times and putting up 739 runs. New York has accumulated 223 long balls for the year as well as 706 runs batted in. They have struck out on 1,480 occasions (6th in baseball) and have notched a total of 1,250 hits. The New York Yankees have accumulated a team on-base percentage of .311 as well as a team batting average of .235 for the year.

The Yankees are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.174 and have a FIP of 3.71 as a pitching staff for the season. Their K/BB ratio sits at 9.10 (1,450 strikeouts against 488 walks). They rank 3rd in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 1,204. They have relinquished 165 home runs and they concede 3.75 runs per 9 innings (1st in the league). The New York pitching staff have conceded 601 runs so far this season and come in with a team ERA of 3.24 (519 earned runs relinquished).

New York relief pitchers have an inherited score percentage of 22.1% of 271 inherited runners. Their relief pitchers have come in 175 times in high leverage situations and also on 190 occasions with runners on base. With 162 save situations, the Yankees have tallied 86 holds in addition to 28 blown saves. They sit at 17th in the league holding a save percentage of 61.6%, and they have dispatched 532 relievers to the mound on the campaign.

The New York Yankees have turned 123 double plays and own a fielding percentage of .983 (22nd in the majors). The Yankees have recorded 1,395 assists, 96 errors and have accounted for 4,324 putouts on the season. In their 12,972 innings played, the Yankees hold a defensive efficiency of 71.1% (7th in MLB).

During his pro baseball career, Fried has given up 1,026 hits and he has 1,156 strikeouts in 1,191 innings. He has allowed a total of 399 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.138 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.0. His K/BB ratio is 3.50 and he has faced 4,849 hitters so far in his pro baseball career. Fried (97-46 win-loss record in his career) has earned a 3.01 ERA and has allowed 7.8 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Boston (+103)

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