Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Prediction, 9/29/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres

Date: Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Location: Petco Park in San Diego, CA

TV: Peacock

Odds/Point Spread: Chicago (+105) San Diego (-126)

Petco Park is the location where the San Diego Padres (91-71) will try to beat the Chicago Cubs (89-73) on Tuesday in Game 1 of their NL Wild Card series. The moneyline on this game has Chicago at +105 while San Diego is at -126. The over/under is 7.5. The pitchers expected to start will be Matthew Boyd and Michael King.

As a squad, the Chicago Cubs are compiling 5.3 runs per contest, which has them at 1st in baseball. They have a total of 850 runs scored and hold an OBP of .339. The Cubs have hit 274 two-baggers as a unit and have hit 220 balls out of the park. They have earned 804 runs batted in as well as 1,398 hits this year, and their batting average is sitting at .251. Chicago has a slugging % of .428 and have struck out 1,345 times, while taking a walk on 674 occasions.

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They have a K/BB ratio of 2.52 and the pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.26. Cubs pitchers have allowed 231 long balls and also 703 total runs (12th in MLB). Chicago has conceded 1,323 base hits (8.2 per 9 innings) and also 662 earned runs. The Cubs are sitting with a team ERA of 4.12 this season (14th in MLB), and the staff has struck out 1,260 hitters. They have walked 500 players from the other team and their FIP sits at 4.60 as a unit for the season.

The Cubs have dispatched 518 relievers to the mound so far this year. The bullpen pitchers have inherited 234 runners on the season with 33.8% of those runners crossing the plate. The relievers have notched 57 holds on the year (30th in MLB). Cubs relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill with runners on base 166 times and also have had 161 appearances in high leverage situations. They have earned 36 saves so far this season and have blown 28 of 64 chances to save the game. The Cubs bullpen have earned a save percentage of 56.3% and have come into the game in 128 save situations.

The Cubs have turned 71.9% of baseballs in play into outs out of their 13,023 innings, which has them ranked 3rd in MLB. The Chicago Cubs have notched a total of 4,341 putouts this year, as well as 1,547 assists and 61 errors. Their fielding rate is holding steady at .990 which has them sitting 1st in the majors, and have 124 double plays.

Boyd has taken the hill for 1,214 innings and has tallied 1,141 strikeouts during his career. Boyd (70-82 win-loss mark in his career) holds a FIP of 4.44 while he has gone up against 5,134 hitters in the major leagues. His ERA is 4.51 (608 earned runs allowed) and his WHIP is 1.270. He has given up 1,167 base hits (8.7 hits per nine innings) and has had 375 walks.

San Diego has accumulated 183 home runs on the season as well as 696 runs batted in. They have put up 234 two-baggers, while getting a free base 554 times and putting up 722 runs. The San Diego Padres hold an on-base percentage of .319 and a batting average of .244 on the season. The Padres hold a team slugging % of .398 and they are earning 4.46 runs per game (16th in the league). They have struck out on 1,310 occasions (22nd in baseball) and have earned a total of 1,314 hits.

The Padres have a WHIP of 1.294 with a FIP of 4.20 as a staff on the campaign. They are currently ranked 13th in baseball as a staff in total hits relinquished with 1,304. The San Diego pitching staff have given up 681 runs so far this year and come in with a team ERA of 3.99 (636 earned runs surrendered). Their K/BB ratio sits at 8.20 (1,315 strikeouts vs 554 bases on balls). They have conceded 180 home runs and they allow 4.27 runs per 9 innings (9th in MLB).

They rank 8th in MLB with a save rate of 70.6%, and they have dispatched 550 relievers onto the field on the campaign. Their relief pitchers have come in 185 times in high leverage situations and on 153 occasions with runners on base. Sitting with 179 save situations, the Padres have amassed 106 holds and also 20 blown saves. San Diego has called on relievers to enter the game in 68 save chances and they have tallied 48 saves. San Diego relievers have an inherited score percentage of 31.0% out of their 248 inherited base runners.

The San Diego Padres have gotten 131 double plays and have notched a fielding percentage of .989 (2nd in professional baseball). The Padres have racked up 1,431 assists, 64 errors and have accumulated 4,309 putouts for the year. In 12,927 innings on the diamond, the Padres have earned a defensive efficiency of 70.6% (11th in pro baseball).

King (43-39 win-loss mark in his career) holds a 3.23 ERA and has given up 7.5 hits per nine innings. His K/BB ratio is 2.97 and he has faced 2,826 hitters in his MLB career. He has surrendered a total of 244 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.190 and having a FIP of 3.2. During his MLB career, King has given up 566 hits while accumulating 718 K's in 679 innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Parlay's Pundit's Pick: Take San Diego (-126) and under 7.5 runs

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