Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Prediction, 10/7/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres

Date: Wednesday, October 7, 2026

Location: Petco Park in San Diego, CA

TV: FS1

Odds/Point Spread: Milwaukee (+114) San Diego (-138)

The San Diego Padres (91-71) will try to beat the Milwaukee Brewers (103-59) at Petco Park on Wednesday in Game 4 of the NLDS. Milwaukee leads 2-1. The line on this matchup has the Brewers at +114 and the Padres are sitting at -138. The over/under has been set at 7. The pitchers expected to start will be Robert Gasser and Walker Buehler.

The Brewers have tallied 279 doubles as a unit and have hit 154 baseballs out of the stadium. Milwaukee has a slugging % of .403 and have been called out on strikes 1,383 times, while being walked on 668 occasions. As a team, the Milwaukee Brewers are notching 5.1 runs per game, which ranks them 2nd in MLB. They have accounted for 788 RBI's as well as 1,422 hits this season, and their batting average is sitting at .258. They have tallied 832 runs while holding a team on-base percentage of .341.

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The Brewers hold a team earned run average of 3.51 on the year (2nd in the league), and the staff has struck out 1,544 batters. Brewers pitchers have surrendered 171 home runs and also 618 runs in total (4th in baseball). Their pitching staff has walked 518 players from the other team and their FIP sits at 3.72 as a team this year. Milwaukee has surrendered 1,186 base hits (7.4 per 9 innings) as well as 565 earned runs. Their K/BB ratio is 2.98 and the pitching staff has earned a collective WHIP of 1.18.

Brewers bullpen pitchers have stepped onto the hill with runners on 129 times as well as having 158 appearances in high leverage situations. The relievers have a total of 86 holds so far this season (14th in baseball). The Brewers relief pitchers have earned a save rate of 72.4% and have stepped onto the mound in 164 save situations. They have earned 55 saves for the year and have blown 21 of their 76 save opportunities. The relievers have inherited 187 base runners so far this year with 37.4% of those runners earned a run for their team. The Brewers have sent 509 relievers to the mound for the season.

The Milwaukee Brewers have accumulated 4,340 putouts so far this season, in addition to 1,269 assists and 72 errors. Their fielding rate is holding steady at .987 which ranks 7th in baseball, and have a total of 118 double plays. The Brewers have turned 71.2% of balls hit into play into outs out of 13,020 innings on the diamond, ranking them 6th in pro baseball.

Gasser has taken the hill for 142 innings and has tallied 124 K's during his MLB career. Gasser (7-7 win-loss mark in his career) has earned a FIP of 3.55 and he has gone up against 606 opposing batters in the major leagues. His ERA is 3.61 (57 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.181. He has surrendered 128 base knocks (8.1 hits per nine innings) with 40 walks.

The Padres have a SLG% of .398 and they score 4.46 runs per outing (16th in MLB). They have recorded 234 two-baggers, while walking 554 times and recording 722 runs. San Diego has hit 183 long balls this year and 696 RBIs. They have been rung up on 1,310 instances (22nd in MLB) and are sitting with 1,314 base hits. The San Diego Padres have a team on-base percentage of .319 in addition to a batting average of .244 so far this season.

The San Diego pitching staff have yielded 681 runs on the campaign while having an ERA of 3.99 (636 earned runs given up). They have surrendered 180 dingers and they surrender 4.27 runs per 9 innings (9th in MLB). The Padres hold a team WHIP of 1.294 in addition to having a FIP of 4.20 as a staff on the season. Their K/BB ratio sits at 8.20 (1,315 strikeouts vs 554 walks). They have a ranking of 13th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 1,304.

They rank 8th in MLB with a save percentage of 70.6%, and they have sent 550 bullpen pitchers onto the diamond so far this year. Their bullpen pitchers have taken the field 185 times in high leverage situations in addition to 153 occasions with runners on. With 179 save situations, the Padres have recorded 106 holds in addition to 20 blown saves. San Diego has called on relievers to take the mound in 68 save opportunities and they have converted 48 saves. San Diego relief pitchers hold an inherited score rate of 31.0% out of their 248 inherited base runners.

The San Diego Padres have gotten 131 double plays and have notched a fielding percentage of .989 (2nd in pro baseball). The Padres have 1,431 assists, 64 errors and have accumulated 4,309 putouts on the campaign. In 12,927 innings played, the Padres have earned a defensive efficiency of 70.6% (11th in pro baseball).

Buehler (66-35 mark in his career) has earned a 3.69 earned run average and has allowed 7.9 hits per nine innings. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.17 and he has faced 4,118 batters during his career. He has given up a total of 407 ER's while holding a WHIP of 1.185 and having a FIP of 3.6. So far in his MLB career, Buehler has surrendered 868 base knocks while totaling 977 strikeouts in 992 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Parlay's Pundit's Pick: Take San Diego (-138) and under 7 runs

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