Milwaukee Brewers vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, 10/28/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Milwaukee Brewers vs Tampa Bay Rays

Date: Wednesday, October 28, 2026

Location: Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL

TV: FOX

Odds/Point Spread: Milwaukee (-154) Tampa Bay (+128)

The Tampa Bay Rays (98-64) will compete against the Milwaukee Brewers (103-59) at Tropicana Field on Wednesday in Game 5 of the World Series. Milwaukee leads 3-1. The moneyline on this matchup has the Brewers at -154 while the Rays open at +128. The betting total comes in at 7. The expected starting pitchers are Jacob Misiorowski and Nick Martinez.

The Brewers have hit 279 two-baggers as a team and have smacked 154 balls out of the stadium. Milwaukee owns a slugging percentage of .403 and have been called out on strikes 1,383 times, while taking a walk on 668 occasions. As a team, the Milwaukee Brewers are recording 5.1 runs per contest, which has them at 2nd in the league. They have compiled 788 runs batted in in addition to 1,422 base knocks so far this year, while their batting average is .258. They have earned 832 runs while holding a team OBP of .341.

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The Brewers have an earned run average of 3.51 this year (2nd in baseball), and their staff has rung up 1,544 hitters. Brewers pitchers have conceded 171 home runs and 618 total runs (4th in MLB). They have walked 518 hitters and their FIP is 3.72 as a squad so far this year. Milwaukee has given up 1,186 base hits (7.4 per 9 innings) and also 565 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 2.98 and their pitching staff sits with a WHIP of 1.18.

The Brewers have dispatched 509 relievers to the mound this season. The relief pitchers have inherited 187 runners on the campaign and 37.4% of those players ended up crossing the plate. The bullpen have recorded 86 holds for the year (14th in the league). Brewers relief pitchers have entered the contest with players on base 129 times in addition to having 158 appearances in high leverage situations. They have 55 saves over the course of the season and have blown 21 of their 76 chances to get a save. The Brewers bullpen have accumulated a save rate of 72.4% and have stepped onto the mound in 164 save situations.

The Brewers have turned 71.2% of balls hit into play into outs in their 13,020 innings on the diamond, which ranks them 6th in MLB. The Milwaukee Brewers have accumulated 4,340 putouts this year, as well as 1,269 assists and 72 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .987 which has them sitting 7th in pro baseball, and have a total of 118 double plays.

Misiorowski (21-8 win-loss mark in his career) has earned a FIP of 2.47 while he has gone up against 938 batters in the majors. He has given up 147 base hits (5.5 hits per nine innings) and has had 75 free passes. His earned run average is 2.51 (67 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 0.924. Misiorowski has pitched in 240 innings and has 339 K's during his pro baseball career.

The Tampa Bay Rays have compiled a team on-base percentage of .326 and a batting average of .258 over the course of the season. They have been rung up on 1,145 occasions (30th in the league) and have a total of 1,405 base hits. Tampa Bay has tallied 169 home runs for the year to go along with 700 runs batted in. The Rays have a slugging percentage of .402 and they tally 4.54 runs per outing (12th in baseball). They have put up 230 doubles, while getting a free base 514 times as well as scoring 736 runs.

The Tampa Bay pitching staff have surrendered 650 runs for the year and come in with a team ERA of 3.70 (594 earned runs surrendered). They have yielded 201 homers and they concede 4.05 runs per 9 innings (6th in the league). The Rays are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.139 in addition to having a FIP of 4.04 as a team so far this year. They currently have a K/BB ratio of 8.20 (1,322 strikeouts against 409 free passes). They are currently ranked 4th in MLB as a staff in total hits relinquished with 1,235.

Tampa Bay relievers hold an inherited score percentage of 32.3% out of 192 inherited base runners. Their bullpen pitchers have come in 163 times in high leverage situations in addition to 134 occasions with base runners. With 194 save situations, the Rays have 115 holds in addition to 20 blown saves. They rank 4th in the league with a save rate of 74.4%, and they have dispatched 522 bullpen pitchers onto the diamond over the course of the season.

The Tampa Bay Rays have gotten 100 double plays and have earned a fielding percentage of .984 (21st in MLB). The Rays have racked up 1,279 assists, 92 errors and have earned a total of 4,329 putouts over the course of the season. Out of their 12,987 innings played, the Rays have accumulated a efficiency on defense of 72.3% (1st in baseball).

So far in his career, Martinez has conceded 1,106 hits while he has totaled 779 K's in 1,120 innings. Martinez (63-65 win-loss mark in his career) has earned a 3.99 ERA and has conceded 8.9 hits per 9 innings. He has conceded a total of 496 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.269 and being the owner of a FIP of 3.9. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.47 and he has faced 4,709 hitters during his career.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (+128)

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