New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, 4/11/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays

Date: Saturday, April 11, 2026

Location: Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL

TV: MLB.TV

Odds/Point Spread: New York (-145) Tampa Bay (+125)

The New York Yankees (8-4) are headed to Tropicana Field on Saturday where they will meet the Tampa Bay Rays (5-7). The moneyline on this game has the Yankees at -145 while the Rays open at +125. The betting total comes in at 9. The men taking the mound will be Max Fried and Steven Matz.

As a team, the New York Yankees are scoring 4.9 runs per outing, which puts them at 8th in the league. They have earned a total of 54 runs and hold an on-base percentage of .330. The Yankees have accumulated 15 two-baggers as a team and have hit 11 baseballs out of the park. They have 48 RBI's and 77 base knocks so far this season, while their batting average comes in at .218. New York has a slugging percentage of .365 and have struck out 110 times, while being walked on 57 occasions.

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They have a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.66 and their pitching staff has a team WHIP of 1.05. Yankees pitchers have relinquished 2 home runs and also 28 total runs (1st in baseball). New York has allowed 74 hits (6.8 per 9 innings) in addition to 27 earned runs. The Yankees have a team earned run average of 2.47 for the season (2nd in baseball), and the staff has struck out 106 batters. Their pitching staff has walked 29 players from the other team and their FIP comes in at 2.30 as a team this year.

The Yankees have sent 42 relief pitchers to the hill for the season. The relief pitchers have inherited 21 runners on the campaign with 23.8% of those players ended up scoring. The relievers have tallied 8 holds on the campaign (11th in the league). Yankees bullpen pitchers have gone to the mound with opponents on base 14 times and also have had 16 appearances in high leverage situations. They have recorded 5 saves so far this season and have blown 2 of their 7 chances to save the game. The Yankees relief pitchers have recorded a save percentage of 71.4% and have stepped onto the mound in 16 save situations.

The New York Mets have 295 putouts for the season, in addition to 93 assists and 7 errors. Their fielding percentage is at .982 which puts them in 19th in professional baseball, and have accumulated 6 double plays. The Yankees have turned 70.2% of balls in play into outs out of 885 innings, which has them sitting 13th in baseball.

Fried (94-41 mark in his career) has earned a FIP of 2.96 while he has gone up against 4,490 hitters in the major leagues. He has allowed 957 base hits (7.8 hits per 9 innings) and has had 302 free passes. His ERA is 3.00 (367 earned runs allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.145. Fried has pitched in 1,099 innings and has earned 1,066 punch outs in his career.

Tampa Bay is sitting with 11 home runs on the campaign to go along with 51 RBIs. They have 16 doubles, while taking a walk 39 times as well as putting up 55 runs. The Tampa Bay Rays have accumulated a team on-base percentage of .326 and a batting average of .253 this season. The Rays hold a team slugging % of .379 and they are recording 4.58 runs per game (12th in baseball). They have been rung up on 86 occasions (29th in the league) and have a total of 106 base hits.

The Tampa Bay pitching staff have given up 69 runs so far this season and come in with a team ERA of 4.97 (58 earned runs surrendered). They have allowed 15 homers and they allow 5.91 runs per 9 innings (27th in baseball). The Rays hold a team WHIP of 1.246 and have a FIP of 4.45 as a team so far this season. They have earned a K/BB ratio of 7.80 (91 strikeouts against 38 bases on balls). They are sitting at 14th in MLB as a staff in total hits given up with 93.

They are ranked 20th in the league with a save rate of 60.0%, and they have sent 35 bullpen pitchers to the hill this season. Their relief pitchers have stepped onto the hill 15 times in high leverage situations and also on 11 occasions with runners on. Sitting with 11 save situations, the Rays have accumulated 6 holds and also 2 blown saves. Tampa Bay has called on bullpen pitchers to step onto the hill in 5 save opportunities and they have walked away with 3 saves. Tampa Bay relief pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 60.0% out of their 15 inherited runners.

In 948 innings on the field, the Rays have a defensive efficiency of 70.6% (11th in MLB). The Tampa Bay Rays have turned 6 double plays and have accounted for a fielding rate of .960 (30th in pro baseball). The Rays have 89 assists, 17 errors and have accounted for 316 putouts this season.

Matz (62-62 career win-loss mark) has a 4.19 earned run average while conceding 9.1 hits per nine innings. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.23 and he has gone up against 4,326 hitters thus far in his career. He has surrendered 473 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.305 and a FIP of 4.1. So far in his MLB career, Matz has allowed 1,031 hits while tallying 950 K's in 1,015 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (+125)

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