Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, 9/29/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves

Date: Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Location: Truist Park in Cumberland, GA

TV: NBC

Odds/Point Spread: Philadelphia (+167) Atlanta (-204)

Truist Park is the location where the Atlanta Braves (94-68) will meet the Philadelphia Phillies (88-74) on Tuesday in Game 1 of their NL Wild Card series. The odds on this game have the Phillies at +167 while the Braves are priced at -204. The total has been set at 7. The pitchers expected to start will be Jesus Luzardo and Chris Sale.

The Phillies have recorded 246 doubles as a team and have smacked 182 baseballs out of the park. Philadelphia has a slugging rate of .395 and have been called out on strikes 1,318 times, while taking a walk on 529 occasions. As a squad, the Philadelphia Phillies are knocking in 4.4 runs per game, which has them at 19th in the league. They have accounted for 691 RBI's in addition to 1,301 hits on the year, and their batting average is sitting at .240. They have a total of 713 runs scored while having a team OBP of .312.

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The Phillies have compiled a team earned run average of 4.04 this year (11th in baseball), and their staff has struck out 1,577 batters. Phillies pitchers have conceded 191 home runs in addition to 698 runs in total (11th in MLB). They have walked 484 batters and their FIP comes in at 3.79 as a squad this season. Philadelphia has allowed 1,366 hits (8.5 per 9 innings) and 646 earned runs. Their strikeout to walk ratio sits at 3.26 and the pitching staff has recorded a WHIP of 1.29.

Phillies relief pitchers have come into the game with runners on base 122 times in addition to having 158 appearances in high leverage situations. The relief pitchers have a total of 73 holds on the season (26th in baseball). The Phillies relief pitchers have a save percentage of 64.6% and have come into the game in 140 save situations. They have compiled 42 saves over the course of the season and have blown 23 of 65 save opportunities. The relievers have inherited 171 runners on the season and 38.6% of those players earned a run for their team. The Phillies have sent 531 relievers to the mound over the course of the season.

The Phillies have transformed 67.8% of balls hit into play into outs in their 12,945 innings on the field, which has them sitting at 28th in the majors. The Philadelphia Phillies have earned a total of 4,315 putouts this season, in addition to 1,337 assists and 80 errors. Their fielding percentage sits at .986 which has them ranked 14th in pro baseball, and have a total of 105 double plays.

Luzardo has thrown 874 innings and has earned 996 K's in his career. His ERA is 3.92 (381 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.210. He has given up 769 base hits (7.9 hits per 9 innings) and has 289 free passes. Luzardo (55-46 career win-loss mark) has earned a FIP of 3.86 while going up against 3,634 opposing batters in the majors.

The Braves have a team slugging percentage of .409 and they earn 4.58 runs per contest (9th in the league). They have tallied 251 doubles, while getting a free base 465 times as well as racking up 742 runs. Atlanta is sitting with 204 HRs on the campaign as well as 711 RBIs. They have struck out on 1,310 occasions (21st in MLB) and have earned 1,348 base knocks. The Atlanta Braves have a team OBP of .309 and a team batting average of .246 on the season.

The Atlanta pitching staff have surrendered 626 runs so far this season while holding an ERA of 3.63 (580 earned runs given up). They have yielded 185 homers and they give up 3.92 runs per 9 innings (5th in MLB). The Braves are sitting with a team WHIP of 1.243 with a FIP of 4.13 as a pitching staff for the year. Their K/BB ratio is 8.40 (1,350 strikeouts against 529 free passes). They are currently ranked 6th in baseball as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 1,259.

They sit at 7th in baseball holding a save percentage of 71.0%, and they have sent 499 bullpen pitchers onto the diamond so far this season. Their bullpen pitchers have come in 175 times in high leverage situations in addition to 119 occasions with runners on base. Sitting with 180 save situations, the Braves have 106 holds and 20 blown saves. Atlanta has had relievers enter the game in 69 save chances and they have tallied 49 saves. Atlanta relievers hold an inherited score percentage of 20.9% of 172 inherited base runners.

In 12,942 innings on the diamond, the Braves have a defensive efficiency of 71.5% (5th in baseball). The Atlanta Braves have gotten 131 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .989 (5th in professional baseball). The Braves have accrued 1,348 assists, 65 errors and have accumulated 4,314 putouts this season.

In his career, Sale has conceded 1,821 base hits and he has 2,779 strikeouts in 2,246 innings pitched. He has conceded a total of 736 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.041 and a FIP of 2.9. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 5.36 and he has gone up against 9,037 batters during his pro baseball career. Sale (159-97 mark in his career) holds a 2.95 earned run average while allowing 7.3 hits per nine innings.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Philadelphia (+167)

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