Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Prediction, 3/26/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets

Date: Thursday, March 26, 2026

Location: Citi Field in Queens, NY

TV: Sportsnet New York

Odds/Point Spread: Pittsburgh (+125) New York (-145)

Citi Field is the location where the New York Mets (83-79 last season) will compete against the Pittsburgh Pirates (71-91 last year) on Thursday. The line on this contest has the Pirates at +125 and the Mets are sitting at -145. The over/under is set at 8. The men taking the mound are Paul Skenes and Freddy Peralta.

The Pirates accumulated 245 two-baggers as a unit and hit 117 balls out of the stadium. Pittsburgh had a slugging percentage of .350 and were called out on strikes 1,422 times, while drawing a walk on 530 occasions. As a unit, the Pittsburgh Pirates compiled 3.6 runs per game, which ranked them 30th in baseball. They recorded 561 runs batted in and 1,244 base knocks last season, and their team batting average sat at .231. They accounted for 583 runs scored and held an on-base percentage of .305.

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They earned a K/BB ratio of 2.78 and the pitching staff had a collective WHIP of 1.22. Pirates pitchers surrendered 153 home runs and 645 total runs (5th in MLB). Pittsburgh gave up 1,267 hits (8.0 per 9 innings) as well as 598 earned runs. The Pirates held a team ERA of 3.76 for the prior year (7th in MLB), and the staff rung up 1,314 hitters. Their pitching staff walked 473 hitters and their FIP was 3.83 as a unit over the course of last season.

The Pirates dispatched 510 relievers to the hill over the course of the prior season. The bullpen inherited 218 base runners over the course of the prior season and 35.3% of them ended up scoring. They compiled 36 saves during the previous year and missed out on 26 of 62 save chances. The Pirates bullpen accumulated a save rate of 58.1% and entered the game in 141 save situations. The relievers finished with 76 holds in the previous season (24th in MLB). Pirates pitchers went to the mound with runners on base 143 times and also had 161 games in high leverage situations.

The Pittsburgh Pirates accumulated 4,292 putouts last year, as well as 1,334 assists and 77 errors. Their fielding percentage finished at .986 which was 12th in MLB, and they turned 118 double plays. The Pirates converted 70.7% of balls hit into play into outs out of 12,876 innings, which ranked them 9th in baseball.

Skenes has thrown 320 innings and has earned 386 strikeouts in his pro baseball career. His earned run average is 1.97 (70 ER's allowed) and his WHIP is 0.949. He has surrendered 230 base hits (6.5 hits per 9 innings) and has 74 walks. Skenes (21-13 career mark) is the owner of a FIP of 1.94 while facing 1,247 opposing batters in the major leagues.

The Mets held a slugging % of .427 and they were scoring 4.73 runs per game (9th in the league). They recorded 262 doubles, while getting a free base 563 times and notching 766 runs. New York compiled 224 home runs for the prior year to go along with 746 runs batted in. They struck out on 1,325 instances (21st in the league) and had 1,359 base hits. The New York Mets had a team OBP of .326 and a batting average of .249 last year.

The Mets held a team WHIP of 1.323 and were the owners of a FIP of 3.88 as a pitching staff for the previous season. They earned a K/BB ratio of 8.70 (1,387 strikeouts vs 556 bases on balls). They ranked 18th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits allowed with 1,338. They conceded 149 dingers and they yielded 4.49 runs per 9 innings (18th in MLB). The New York pitching staff conceded 715 runs in the previous season while holding a team ERA of 4.03 (641 earned runs allowed).

New York called on relievers to enter the contest in 68 save opportunities and they tallied 40 saves. They were sitting at 23rd in MLB with a save percentage of 58.8%, and they dispatched 541 relievers onto the field last season. Their bullpen pitchers stepped onto the mound 185 times in high leverage situations and also on 176 occasions with runners on. New York bullpen pitchers held an inherited score percentage of 35.0% out of their 257 inherited runners. Wrapping up the year with 170 save situations, the Mets amassed 101 holds and 28 blown saves.

In 12,888 innings played, the Mets finished with a defensive efficiency of 68.8% (25th in pro baseball). The New York Mets had 119 double plays and accounted for a fielding rate of .986 (13th in professional baseball). The Mets accrued 1,475 assists, 79 errors and amassed 4,296 putouts over the course of last year.

Peralta (70-42 record in his career) holds a 3.59 earned run average while surrendering 6.7 hits per 9 innings. He has a K/BB ratio of 3.20 and he has gone up against 3,853 batters so far in his pro baseball career. He has given up a total of 371 earned runs while holding a WHIP of 1.133 and having a FIP of 3.5. In his MLB career, Peralta has conceded 694 hits while he has tallied 1,153 punch outs in 930 frames.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take New York (-145)

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