Free CFL Week 11 Picks from Expert Canadian Football Handicapper
I, for one, did not see Saskatchewan's stunning straight up upset over Calgary coming with the Stampeders set as my CFL Week 10 pick of the week for Doc's. However, that is why they play the games. Last weekend was rough for all the favorites, with the underdogs sweeping the board against the spread while winning three of the four games SU.
For this week's free CFL pick, I have turned my attention to the lone inter-division matchup in Week 11 between the Edmonton Eskimos and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats this Thursday night in Hamilton.
CFL Week 11 Betting Overview
Friday's CFL action pits Toronto on the road against Montreal as a 5.5-point favorite . The total line for this 7:30 p.m. (ET) start is set at 51.5 points. The Argonauts have been able to turn things around lately with a pair of dramatic one-point victories as underdogs against Ottawa and British Columbia. Montreal continues to sink to the bottom of the CFL at 1-8 SU, but it is 4-5 ATS.
There are two games on Saturday's slate starting at 3:30 p.m. with a West Division clash between the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and the Calgary Stampeders. Calgary has been listed as a nine-point home favorite coming off last week's stunning 40-27 loss to the Roughriders. The total has been set at 53.5 points.
Saturday's nightcap at 10 p.m. sends Saskatchewan on the road to face BC in another tilt in the West. The Lions are favored by 2.5 points with the total line set at 51 points. BC has gone 4-1 both SU and ATS in its last five home games against the Roughriders.
CFL Free Pick of the Week: Edmonton at Hamilton
This will be the second meeting between these two inter-division foes this season. The Tiger-Cats went on the road in Week 2 and hammered out a 38-21 victory against the Eskimos as 6.5-point underdogs. The total went over the closing 56.5-point line. This time around, Hamilton is favored by three points at home with the total set at 57 for this 7:30 p.m. start at Tim Hortons Field.
The Eskimos moved to 6-3 SU on the year with last week's 40-24 victory against Montreal. However, with the spread closing at a hefty 19 points, they fell to 3-6 ATS. Edmonton is an even 2-2 SU in four previous road games this season with a 1-3 mark ATS. This will be the first game this season where the Eskimos have not been listed as favorites to win.
There is little doubt that Mike Reilly is the most prolific passer in the CFL. After leading the league in total passing yards last season, he remains at the top of the list with 3,046 passing yards in nine games. He has also led the way in passing touchdowns with 19 against nine interceptions. The main issue with Edmonton this season, especially when playing on the road, is a defense that has allowed an average of 24.7 points per game.
Hamilton is coming off a bye at 3-5 SU with a 3-4-1 record ATS after losing four of its previous five games. This is a better team than its current record suggests and the motivation for a strong start to the second half of the season has to be running high. The early schedule has worked against the Tiger-Cats with five of the first eight games on the road and just two games coming against a weaker East Division opponent.
To turn things around this Thursday night, I am looking for a much better effort from Jeremiah Masoli at quarterback. He has racked-up 2,465 passing yards in eight games, but he has tossed eight interceptions to match his eight touchdown throws. Masoli also leads the team in rushing yards with 287 yards on 33 rushing attempts. This mobility could help to open things up even more against a porous Edmonton secondary.
I am going to lay the three-points on the home favorite as my free CFL play this week. Edmonton is 1-5 ATS in its last six games against a SU losing team and the Tiger-Cats are 7-2 ATS coming off a SU loss.
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