Free CFL Week 6 Picks from Expert Canadian Football Handicapper
After starting the new CFL regular season with four-straight winners with my weekly free picks for Doc's Sports, I took last week off in light of a shortened three-game schedule. Through the first five weeks of the season, Calgary has maintained its position as the cream of the crop 'north of the boarder' both on the field and at the betting window at 4-0 straight-up and against the spread.
Questions at quarterback have Calgary's home game against Montreal this Saturday night still "off the board", but that has not deterred me from using this huge mismatch as my pick of the week.
CFL Week 6 Betting Overview
A pair of 2-2 teams (SU and ATS) get things started on Thursday night with the West's Saskatchewan Roughriders facing the East's Hamilton Tiger-Cats at 7:30 p.m. in the backend of a inter-division home-and-home series. Hamilton is listed as a 10.5-point home favorite with the total set at 51.5 points. Saskatchewan drew first blood on July 5 with an 18-13 victory as a six-point home underdog.
Friday night's action gets underway at 7:30 p.m. with the British Columbia Lions taking on the Ottawa RedBlacks in another inter-division tilt. The RedBlacks are also 2-2 both SU and ATS and they have been opened as 6.5-point home favorites with the total set at 53.5 points. The total has stayed "under' in their last three games.
In the first of two Saturday games in Week 6, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) and the Toronto Argonauts (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) open their upcoming home-and-home series in a 4 p.m. start at BMO Field in Toronto. This game remains a PICK with the betting line for the total set at 50.5 points. The total has stayed under in the Argonauts' first four games.
CFL Free Pick of the Week: Montreal at Calgary
Montreal won a total of three games last season and given the way it has played in every phase of the game in a 1-3 start (SU and ATS), it could be hard-pressed to top that total this time around. The lone bright spot was a stunning 23-17 upset on the road against Saskatchewan on June 30 as a 10.5-point underdog. The Alouettes have lost their other three games by a combined score of 106-38 with the total staying under in three of their first four games overall.
Drew Willy will be back under center on Saturday night for the injured Jeff Mathews. Willy went down in Week 3, but he was deemed ready to return to the starting lineup coming off last week's bye. He has thrown for 549 yards and three touchdowns against one interception in three previous starts.
The Stampeders have established their dominance in the CFL early this season with their 4-0 start behind four-straight double-digit victories. Last Thursday against Ottawa, they rolled to a 27-3 victory as three-point road favorites. In the process, Calgary lost its starting quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell due to injury. He remains day-to-day on the latest injury report, but I would not be surprised to see him sit this one out given the pending mismatch on the field. Nick Arbuckle took over the quarterbacking duties in last week's game and completed 8-of-14 passing attempts for 84 yards and a score.
With Mitchell at the helm, this offense has averaged 30 points per game. Don Jackson is the team's leading rusher with 396 yards and two touchdowns for an average of 7.8 yards a carry. Between Calgary's power running game and a defense that leads the CFL in points allowed (9.5), the Stampeders have more than enough talent on each of the ball to post a fifth-straight double-digit win.
The only way I would back off Calgary in this game is if the spread opens higher than 21 points. The Stampeders have been a solid bet at home the past few seasons at 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games.
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