Best Bets for College Football Season Win Totals Futures Wagering
Back in June when the college football win totals were first posted we took a look at the numbers that were posted. And for the most part I am still okay with where we were on them then. As we get closer to the start of the season, though, it made sense to look again at Bovada's numbers to find ones that are interesting and worth a closer look. Only Ohio State shows up both on this list and the June one, and some things have obviously changed with them:
Texas A&M (7.5): The more I think about the Aggies, the less convinced I am becoming that this ludicrously expensive Jimbo Fisher experiment is going to turn out well. He really mailed it in last season, and he did so in a way that was a long way from professional. And now he is in a place that doesn't have the advantages in many ways that Florida State did and in a league that is far less forgiving. And despite the contract, I am not at all convinced that he is motivated enough to put the work in to make Texas A&M hungry enough to make things work out. Things have not been good for a long while with the team, so he has some work to do. I am quite negative in the short term - and longer than that as well. The under is the slight favorite here as well.
Ohio State (10): This is certainly interesting. As I write this we are still waiting for a resolution in the Urban Meyer situation, and that will obviously have a big impact on the team and their season. That makes it tough to judge the team now. It's interesting to look at them still, though. Back in June the total was at 9.5, and the over was bet in ridiculously lopsided fashion at -230. Now the total has crept up just a half point, but the under is solidly favored at -135. Clearly, then, the Meyer situation is having a negative impact on the outlook of this team - or at least making people a little uneasy. The team has completely shut down media access to the team during fall practice as well, and the total lack of information isn't helping as the team deals with a QB change and other adjustments.
USC (8.5): USC is solidly favored to win their division, and yet their win total is at just 8.5 - the Pac-12 aside from Washington in a nutshell. The talent is strong at USC, and the loss of Sam Darnold doesn't have to be a particularly big deal because of the talent they have to replace him. But I don't like the coaching staff at all, and mental toughness hasn't exactly defined this team of late. This is a very tough team to judge because they don't have a single game on their schedule that I expect them to likely lose, but there are five or six that they could lose without causing even an ounce of shock. This team could go 7-5 or 11-1 against this schedule. I really wish we could revisit this number after they play at Stanford and Texas in Weeks 2 and 3, respectively, but since that can't happen I can't comfortably take a side. And I'm not alone - action has been fairly evenly split, with the over having just a slight edge. For a public team like this to have that much uncertainty is telling.
Michigan (9): Just have to throw this in every chance I get - Michigan is going way, way over this number. Go Blue! I'm admittedly very bias, but even putting my maize and blue soul aside for a second and being objective, the over is the right side here.
Arkansas State (8.5): We are going off the board for one here - Arkansas State isn't quite at the same level as others on this list in terms of profile. But this is an interesting team this year, largely because Justice Hansen is a very impressive QB. He threw for almost 4,000 yards and 37 touchdowns, and his 8.15 yards per attempt is very legitimate. And as a senior he could still take another step forward in this pass-friendly offense, and he has an experienced collection of players to compliment him. The team is essentially playing an 11-game season - game two is at Alabama, and that isn't going to go well. But the team has averaged just one conference loss over the last three years and could have the best offense of that period and an improved defense. The rest of the nonconference schedule aside from the Alabama payday is manageable, too. The over is clearly the right side here - by quite a bit. Before you get too excited, though, note that the price movement has really been on top of the weakness of this number - the over opened at -110 and is now at -170. So much for that value.
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