Expert College Football Picks: Georgia at Kentucky Odds and Betting Predictions
Georgia Bulldogs at Kentucky Wildcats, Saturday November 3, 3:30 p.m. ET
Kentucky is playing a meaningful game in November. In football. And that is not a misprint. The school's basketball team is sitting on serious title expectations this year, but they will have to wait their turn for the spotlight in Lexington, because the gridiron version of the Wildcats still has some work to do. This game is a virtual playoff game for the SEC East crown, so the team is just one win away from the SEC title game - something that seemed all but impossible for the Wildcats at any time, never mind this year. Of course, winning the SEC East just means you get to get crushed by Alabama in the title game, but that's not the point. If the Wildcats win here, they should win out. So, can Cinderella keep wearing the glass slipper?
Georgia at Kentucky Betting Storylines
This is the biggest football game that Kentucky has played, and I am not going out on a limb even slightly to say that. They have never won their division, and they could all but do so here. It would be very easy for a team to feel the pressure in this situation, never mind one for whom this kind of pressure is totally foreign. And it was a lifetime ago that coach Mark Stoops had success as the DB coach with Miami's National Championship team. Since then he has been with lesser programs and is just 33-37 as a head coach. It would be very easy for this moment to become too big for this team. And with a margin of error that is already too small for the squad, that has to be a major concern. Also a concern is the Kentucky offensive line. Kentucky's offense is very heavily reliant on running back Benny Snell Jr., who leads the SEC in rushing. In two of the last three games, though, the line has looked very mortal, and Snell has been held below 70 yards as a result. For the Wildcats to have any chance at all, Snell needs to go off in a big way, and that starts up front. Georgia has been a much easier team to run on than to pass against, and it's not like Kentucky has a passing attack of any note - QB Terry Wilson has yet to crack the 1,000-yard mark on the season. The pressure on the Wildcats is intense, and it is far amplified for Snell and that line.
For Georgia the biggest question is which Jake Fromm will show up. Will it be the absolute mess of a player who completed less than half of his passes and was picked off twice against LSU? Because that guy will have some issues against Kentucky - the Wildcats defense ranks second nationally in points allowed with just 13, and 10th in total yards. If the Fromm who showed up last time out against Florida shows up here, though, it's a different story. He threw three touchdowns in that game and looked like a machine. With some Georgia fans screaming for Justin Fields to take over the pressure is on Fromm, and his response will be a big deal. Drew Lock had a bad day against this defense just last week, so Fromm's success is certainly up in the air.
Georgia at Kentucky Odds and Betting Trends
The game opened with Georgia favored by 10 points. That has since fallen to nine . With well over 70 percent of bets coming in on Georgia, the movement makes it clear that sharp money is leaning towards the Wildcats. The total opened at 44 and has fallen slightly to 43.5 in early action.
Georgia is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games and 7-2 ATS in their last nine against teams with a winning record. They are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Kentucky is an ugly 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games at home but have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six against teams with winning records. Georgia has covered the spread in the last five meetings of these teams - all, obviously, as favorites.
Georgia at Kentucky Predictions and Picks
This is the kind of game that just begs me to take the underdog. I love a Cinderella story for starters, never mind one that is playing out in the center of the horse racing universe in one of the country's great cities. And beyond Alabama I am reasonably skeptical of the SEC elite. Georgia is the better team and will very likely win, but Kentucky is getting enough points to make it worth a play. If they can run the ball and frustrate Fromm, they can keep it close. And the crowd should be as fired up as they have ever been in Lexington. This isn't a game I would bet heavily on, but for a rooting interest Kentucky is the play.
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