NCAA Football Betting Advice: Fading the Top 25 Weekly Free Picks
Week 2 in college football lacked marquee matchups, but that isn't the case in Week 3. There are plenty of really good games set for this weekend. Before you place your bets this weekend, make sure you handicap the weather since there are so many games that could be affected by Hurricane Florence.
The goal of this article is to track how teams in the weekly Top 25 do against the spread. We're here to look a little deeper than most and figure out how the top-ranked teams do at the betting window. In addition, in this weekly article I'll be taking a look at which Top 25 teams I think are best to fade that particular week. We'll keep track of those selections as well.
Last year, teams in the Top 25 did better than normal covering the number. The Top 25 teams were 153-149-2 against the spread last season That's a cover rate of 49.0 percent fading teams in the Top 25.
The Fade the Top 25 Selections finished last year at 23-23 for +$1,040 with the larger plays helping me turn a profit.
The Top 25 overall went 12-13 ATS last week. Three of the top four teams covered the spread. Alabama smashed Arkansas State. Georgia coasted to an easy road win over South Carolina. Ohio State drubbed Rutgers yet again. The Fade the Top 25 Selections went 1-2 last week. USC was a 2-unit loser. The Trojans offense looked hapless in that game. The USC defense held their own nicely against a quality Stanford offense, but scoring 3 points will almost never get you a cover. For a second straight week, Alabama blasted their opponent and cost me a unit. The Crimson Tide sure look like the real deal. I won't be fading them again soon. The winner from last week was Texas A&M. The Aggies nearly won outright in what was the best game of last weekend.
Play #1- Utah +7 at -115 (4 units) Kyle Whittingham's Utah team is flying under the radar. I think they might be the best team in the Pac 12 South. Utah is first in the nation in yards per play allowed through two games. The Utes have allowed only 2.22 yards per play thus far. I know one of those games was against Weber State, but their defensive completely dominated Northern Illinois on the road as well. The Huskies had only 228 total yards of offense in that contest.
Utah has played Washington very tough in recent seasons. Utah led almost the whole way in their road game last year, but some questionable decisions and 10 points from Washington in the final 58 seconds of the game let the Huskies escape with a 33-30 win. Two years ago Washington won a hard-fought game 31-24 in Utah. In 2015, Utah 34-23 won as two-point underdogs at Washington.
Kyle Whittingham is 30-20-2 ATS as an underdog while coaching the Utah Utes. The Utes have a fantastic home-field advantage, and with this being a late-night game that advantage should be even greater.
Washington's offense has looked mediocre this year. The Huskies are likely to be tested in a big way here, and I think Utah has a real chance at an outright win. There are some books showing +7 on this one, and I'll grab that and account for the little bit of extra juice.
Play #2- Boise State +2.5 (2 units) I've been extremely impressed with Boise State so far this year. I know it was UConn, but any time you put up more than 800 yards of total offense then that is extremely impressive. The Broncos have an elite defense led by a tremendous defensive front. Oklahoma State has gotten good quarterback play from Tayler Cornelius thus far, but to say it is a big step up in class from Missouri State and South Alabama to Boise State is a massive understatement.
Boise State has a veteran team that has a real chance at going unbeaten if they can win this game. The Broncos have a senior quarterback in Brett Rypien, and he is going to have a big season with an improved offensive line in front of him this year. Oklahoma State is good against the run, but the Cowboys should be susceptible to good passing attacks this year.
Play #3- Ohio State -12.5 (2 units) TCU is a well-coached team, so I am hesitant to make a play against them a big one, but I see the Buckeyes as a vastly superior team here. Dwayne Haskins has been amazing in this offense. The Buckeyes have a great tandem of backs in Mike Weber and J.K. Dobbins. In some of the past years, Ohio State's wide receivers were a weakness, but they now have one of the deepest groups of wideouts in the country.
TCU's biggest weakness is their offensive line. That's not a good weakness to have when you are going against one of the best defensive lines in college football. Ohio State will be in the backfield a lot in this one.
While this game is in Texas, Ohio State travels very well and I think this Buckeyes team will show up ready to play.
Play #4- San Diego State +5 (1 unit) Arizona State is coming off a tremendous comeback win over Michigan State at home. Give the Sun Devils and Herm Edwards a lot of credit for how they have played so far, but this is a difficult spot for them. San Diego State won at Arizona State last year, and it was no fluke. The Aztecs defensive front dominated that game, and the Sun Devils averaged only 1.4 yards per carry.
Christian Chapman will miss this game for San Diego State, but Chapman hasn't played very well for the Aztecs even when he has been under center. The Aztecs will lean on the running game here, and I think they'll be able to run it pretty well against Arizona State.
I'll grab the points with the stronger team in the trenches, especially when they are up against a team in a potential letdown spot.
Top 25 ATS Record Last Week: 12 Wins 13 Losses
Cumulative Overall Top 25 ATS Record Year to Date: 24 Wins (48%) 25 Losses (50%) 1 Tie (2%)
Fade the Top 25 Selections Year to Date: 1 Win 5 Losses (-$780)
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