NCAA Football Betting Advice: Fading the Top 25 Weekly Free Picks
As I watched college football on Saturday, I remembered how nice it is to be able to spend a Saturday watching the action on the college gridiron. For big sports fans and bettors like myself, there isn't a better way to spend a Saturday. There weren't many great finishes, but there will definitely be plenty of great action in the season ahead.
The goal of this article is to track how teams in the weekly Top 25 do against the spread. We're here to look a little deeper than most and figure out how the top ranked teams do at the betting window. In addition, in this weekly article I'll be taking a look at which Top 25 teams I think are best to fade that particular week. We'll keep track of those selections as well.
Last year, teams in the Top 25 did better than normal covering the number. The Top 25 teams were 153-149-2 against the spread last season That's a cover rate of 49.0 percent fading teams in the Top 25.
The Fade the Top 25 Selections finished last year at 23-23 for +$1,040 with the larger plays helping me turn a profit.
Overall, the Top 25 went 12-12-1 ATS last week. Right down the middle. How did things start off last week for the Fade the Top 25 Selections? The fade of Alabama didn't go well at all. The Crimson Tide look like a better team than last season. The fade of Oklahoma was a particularly bad play. Florida Atlantic looked like they didn't even belong on the same field. Washington probably should have beaten Auburn. Turnovers and mistakes in general held them back when they had all kinds of chances to win outright. Overall, an 0-3 start for the selections. There is still a long season ahead.
Let's take a look at Week 2. Note that many Top 25 teams play against FCS opponents this week (cupcake weekend), so there are much less options to choose from than there will be in future weeks.
Play #1- USC +5.5 (2 units) Stanford didn't look very good for the majority of the game against San Diego State. The final score of 31-10 is misleading of how tough that game was for them. In fact, San Diego State really outplayed Stanford in the first half. The Stanford defense is something that I think will be a big problem for them this year.
USC gave up a lot of running yards to UNLV last week, and that is certainly concerning. Still, USC is clearly the better defense in this game. The Trojans talent from top to bottom on the defensive side is leaps and bounds better than Stanford's. Remember USC racking up 623 total yards last year against Stanford? The USC offense was good enough in Week 1, and I think they'll move the ball pretty easily in this contest. This is a game I see as a total flip of the coin, so I'll gladly take 5.5 points of value on a very talented underdog.
Play #2- Arkansas State +37 (1 Unit) Alabama was fantastic in their season opener. Nick Saban's teams have had a history, though, of not covering the number in big spread contests against smaller teams. This has been a spot where Alabama plays down to its competition and doesn't show future teams anything.
How has Alabama done as a big favorite? The Crimson Tide are 10-19 ATS when favored by 30 points or more with Saban as their head coach. Alabama is 2-9 ATS when favored by 30 points or more and receiving 60 percent or more of the betting tickets on the game. Everyone is taking Alabama in this one, and I'll go with a small play against the Crimson Tide. I would rate this one as a bigger play, but with a dynamic quarterback now under center for Alabama, I think some caution should be warranted.
Play #3- Texas A&M +12.5 (1 unit) Jimbo Fisher is a quality coach, and I think he has some great assistant coaches. I expect the Aggies defense to get much better under the leadership of Mike Elko. Clemson has played quite a few close games in recent years, and they are a laying a big number here. It's important to note that this game has a relatively low total at 54 points, which makes grabbing this many points more valuable. Texas A&M has one of the best home-field advantages in all of football as well.
Dabo Sweeney's team is clearly the better team, but Texas A&M doesn't lack weapons. This is a bigger game for the Aggies than the Tigers, and I expect Texas A&M to come ready to play. Look for a hard-hitting close game.
Fade the Top 25 Year to Date: 12 Wins 12 Losses 1 Tie
Cumulative Overall Top 25 ATS Record Season to Date: 0 Wins 3 Losses (-$550)
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