NCAA Football Betting Advice: Fading the Top 25 Weekly Free Picks
College football is back! It's been a long time, and it is great to have the gridiron action back again. Alabama opens the season as a big favorite to repeat as champions this year, but there are several elite teams capable of winning it all. As always, there will be a few big surprise teams near the top of the rankings by the end of the season as well. Figuring out how who those teams will be early enough to find value on them until the market catches up will be the trick. On the other side, try to a find a couple teams who might be overvalued by the public and the marketplace early in the season as well.
The goal of this article is to track how teams in the weekly Top 25 do against the spread. We're here to look a little deeper than most and figure out how the top-ranked teams do at the betting window. In addition, in this weekly article I'll be taking a look at which Top 25 teams I think are best to fade that particular week. We'll keep track of those selections as well.
Last year, teams in the Top 25 did better than normal covering the number. The Top 25 teams were 153-149-2 ATS last season That's a cover rate of 49.0 percent fading teams in the Top 25.
The selections at the end of the article finished last season with a flourish. In the final week of the season last year the selections went 3-0 and gained $1,600. As of the end of last year, the Fade the Top 25 Selections went 23-23 for +$1,040.
Play #1- Louisville +24.5 (2 units) Alabama deserves to be favored to win it all this year, and they deserve to be at the top of everyone's power ratings for this year. Still, the Crimson Tide do have some question marks. Nine coaches are in new roles for Alabama this year. They have a new offensive coordinator and a new defensive coordinator. The Crimson Tide have two quality quarterbacks, but there has been a controversy over who will start.
While many will think Louisville isn't a quality opponent since Lamar Jackson is gone, we should keep in mind that Bobby Petrino is a great coach. Maybe he isn't great when it comes to motorcycles, but he does know how to coach a football team. I think Louisville has a very good quarterback in Jawon Pass also. Pass will be very accurate throwing the football, and by all accounts he seems to be comfortable in this offense already.
Alabama will win this game, and it isn't likely to be terribly close, but this is a bunch of points. Even if Louisville isn't all that competitive early in the game, this is enough points to where a backdoor cover is a real possibility. I'll grab the points with Louisville.
Play #2- Washington +2.5 (2 units) A marquee matchup between two teams in the Top 10. It is technically a neutral-site game, but with this one being played in Atlanta there's no doubt Auburn will have the home-field advantage. Why do I like Washington here?
Auburn has to replace a lot of talent on offense from last year. They lost their top two running backs and have only one returning starter on the offensive line. They are up against a Washington defensive front that excels at both stopping the run and pressuring the quarterback.
I view Chris Petersen as one of the top three or four coaches in all of college football. Early in the season, Petersen's teams have been great at covering the number. Petersen's teams are 15-6 ATS in the last 21 games during Weeks 1 and 2 of the season.
Washington has 17 returning starters, and the Huskies should be better than they were a year ago. Auburn has only 13 returning starters, and I think the Tigers will have a tough time matching last year's offensive numbers. I like Washington to win this one.
Play #3- Florida Atlantic +21 (1 unit) There's no doubt in my mind that Lane Kiffin is pumped up for a challenge like this one. Kiffin likely thinks he should be coaching a big-name program right now, and this game gives him a national spotlight and a chance to show how much he has done with the Florida Atlantic program in such a short period of time.
Oklahoma returns 12 starters from last year, but they did lose Baker Mayfield and four of their top six tacklers from last year. The Sooners weakness on defense is stopping the run, and if there is one thing Florida Atlantic will excel at this season it is running the football.
Florida Atlantic allowed only 5.2 yards per play last year after giving up 6.9 yards per play two years ago. The Owls return 10 starters on the defensive side of the ball this year. With Oklahoma breaking in a new quarterback, they might keep their offense a little bit vanilla in Week 1. This is a lot of points against a hungry Florida Atlantic team that has nothing to lose here.
Fade the Top 25 Selections Year to Date: 0 Wins 0 Losses
Cumulative Overall Top 25 ATS Record Season to Date: 0 Wins 0 Losses
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