NCAA Football Mid-Major Free Betting Picks: Utah State Aggies Week 7
The mid-major betting report is back. It's already Week 7, and the Utah State Aggies are coming off a huge win over BYU to move them to 4-1 on the season. That's the type of win that can serve as a springboard to much bigger things ahead. There can also be letdowns after a win like that, so it is up to the coaching staff to keep this team motivated and hungry for the week ahead.
I chose to follow the Utah State football program this year. The Aggies haven't had a winning season since 2014. They were 6-7 a year ago and lost a bowl game to New Mexico State. Utah State has lost their last eight games decided by a touchdown or less. They were on the cusp of breaking out last year but couldn't get over the hump. We'll see if they can do it this season. I'll be following Utah State beat writers, following players and coaches on Twitter, and reading the press conference transcripts to find information on the Aggies. I'll be looking to make myself an expert on this Utah State football team.
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How have the selections on the mid-major betting report done overall? The overall record is 48 wins and 33 losses with a gain of $2,020. Last year, I followed the Marshall Thundering Herd as they tried to recover from a bad season in 2016. Marshall did have a nice bounce-back season, and the selections last year went 8-5 and we finished up $520. It was nice to have another strong season.
There will be a selection on each game at the end of the weekly article. We'll be using the Doc's Sports Unit Betting System for every pick, which will allow readers to follow along and track the results.
Utah State defeated rival BYU 45-20 last Friday night on the road. It was a massive win for this Utah State program. They went off as small underdogs in that contest, but they dominated throughout. Utah State ran for 223 yards against BYU, and that is easily the most impressive statistic of the night. The Aggies have had trouble running against physical teams like BYU for several years, but their running game is much stronger this season. Darwin Thompson got a lot of time at running back last week, and he averaged 6.4 yards per carry.
BYU did get quite a few yards in the passing game, but that was when Utah State had a comfortable lead. The Cougars rushing attack couldn't get anything going. BYU averaged 2.4 yards per carry. Utah State's defense did a great job last Friday night.
There's always something that can be worked on, and that area for Utah State would be penalties. Utah State was flagged 12 times for a total of 125 yards. They'll need to clean that up moving forward.
The two-unit selection on Utah State moneyline last weekend cashed.
Notes of Interest
-Jaden Johnson, a broadcaster for the Aggie Radio, posted on Twitter that Utah State's football team has never scored 40 points or more in four straight games until this season. Utah State has been playing football since 1892, so that is quite a feat!
-Utah State is now receiving votes in both the Associated Press Top 25 and the coaches poll. The Aggies are now ranked 33rd in both polls. A couple more wins and they could crack the Top 25 in at least one of these polls.
-The Aggies running game going to the next level has really made this offense balanced and tough to stop. Utah State ranks 20th in the nation at 5.42 yards per carry so far this year.
-Utah State isn't doing this with smoke and mirrors. The Aggies rank 15th in the nation in yards per play margin. The Aggies are +1.9 yards per play so far this season.
-Utah State takes on UNLV this weekend. This is a unique spot for both teams. Utah State is coming off a historic win over BYU, and UNLV is coming off a terrible showing in their loss to New Mexico. The Lobos went to UNLV and thumped the Rebels 50-14. UNLV had only 166 yards of total offense in that game.
-UNLV is without starting quarterback Armani Rogers (toe injury) until November. That's a huge hit to this team because of his explosiveness. The UNLV running game had been elite, but Rogers was one of the primary reasons for that success. Max Gilliam started last weekend, and it was a rough first game for him. He was pretty highly-touted, though, and we'll see if he can be better in his second start.
- UNLV is 6-0 against the spread in their last six games following an ATS loss.
-The Rebels are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.
-Utah State is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a losing record.
-The 'over' is 20-7 in Utah State's last 27 conference games.
UNLV at Utah State College Football Odds
Utah State opened as a 23.5-point favorite at most books earlier this week. The line has quickly moved up during the week. There is a wide variety of lines available now, but most are Utah State -26 or Utah State -27. The posted total opened at 63, and it has stayed right there all week thus far.
UNLV at Utah State College Football Picks
This is a very tough game to pick based on the line move and everything associated. I do think UNLV is better than the way they played last week, but the Rebels defense ranks 100th in the country in yards per carry allowed. Utah State should be able to move the ball with ease again here.
Can UNLV move the ball with a backup quarterback against a good Utah State defense? I'm not sure. UNLV is extremely reliant on the running game, and the strength of this Utah State defense is their front seven. I don't see them getting much on the ground, especially because their passing attack isn't going to keep Utah State guessing on defense.
I'll play Utah State minus the points for one unit because the spot isn't great for Utah State coming off a huge win over a rival. Still, I believe they are the much better team, and this game appears to be a mismatch in many phases of the game.
Pick #148- Utah State -26 (1 unit)
Season Results- 4 Wins 0 Losses (+$530)
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