Free Picks and Predictions for September 7 from Handicapper Doug Upstone
We are all in on college football for Saturday, with the latest line moves on fresh games and updates on the ones from earlier in the week . Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks and predictions (109-79-3 of late) to see what we are thinking about today. Be sure to watch my video on my handicapper page for NFL free picks on Saturday.
CFB - (313) VANDERBILT at (314) PURDUE 12:00 ET BTN
One of the axioms of betting football is to never overreact to Game 1 of the season. Purdue was supposed to handle Nevada on the road, and they had a 14-point fourth-quarter lead. The Boilermakers were outscored 17-0 thanks to turnovers and lost on the final whistle. Bettors are concerned again about the Boilers defense and have lowered them from -9 to -7 at home against Vanderbilt. Vandy is 2-9 ATS off a home loss by 14 or more points, so what do you do? Update - No movement on since Hump Day, and coach Jeff had angry words about his team blowing lead and bounce back with a win and cover.
Betting Trend - Was 57% backing Purdue, now 60%
Doug's Doc's Take - Purdue covers
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CFB - (317) SYRACUSE at (318) MARYLAND 12:00 ET ESPN
Maybe the betting public is correct in looking at results of Syracuse and Maryland facing weak competition. The Orange handled Liberty 24-0, while the Terps ran past Howard 79-0. The opening college football odds had the 'Cuse at -3.5, but they've been flipped to +2.5. Maybe this is correct, yet, are you comfortable backing the Turtles at 1-9-1 ATS versus Syracuse? Update - We have a buyback on Syracuse, who is now at +1.5, and I would not be shocked to see this around a Pick at game time. The Orange knows how to beat this team and does.
Betting Trend - Was 72% backing Maryland, now 62%
Doug's Doc's Take - Syracuse covers
CFB - (319) WEST VIRGINIA at (320) MISSOURI 12:00 ET ESPN2
Neither team looked good in their opener, and they will seek improvement this Saturday. In spite of Missouri surrendering 297 rushing yards at Wyoming, the Tigers have crawled from -10.5 to -14 against West Virginia in Columbia. The Mountaineers had only 34 yards on the ground against James Madison, making this a less a conundrum for the Tigers. Mizzou is 33-16 ATS in home games off a road loss, can they repeat that success? Update - A small downturn on Missouri, presently sitting at -13.5. I wasn't impressed by the Tigers. However, West Virginia doesn't have much talent. Missouri by 17.
Betting Trend - Was 59% backing West Virginia, now 50-50 split
Doug's Doc's Take - Missouri covers
CFB - (321) CINCINNATI at (322) OHIO STATE 12:00 ET ABC *New*
The total in this Ohio encounter has tumbled three points to 52, with football bettors anticipating both team's physical defenses to control the action. While Cincinnati has strong "Under" tendencies, Ohio State's offense will generate big plays, and this battle of Ohio will land in the upper 50's, Take Over.
Betting Trend - 70% backing Over
Doug's Doc's Take - Play Over
CFB - (333) TEXAS A&M at (334) CLEMSON 3:30 ET ABC *New* (side and total)
This is one the two most talked about games of the day, and it's drawn a ton of interest from those betting football. Clemson has gone backward from -18.5 to -16.5, while the total is up from 61 to 64. This seems to correlate, because if Texas A&M is to stay more in the game, it would be because of the offense, not defense. I would love to give a selection on the game, but it is one of my picks at Doc's Sports. However, I will tell you that Clemson is 9-1 Under off one or more Over' s and is 18-6 Under after rushing for 300 or more yards.
Betting Trend - 72% backing Texas A&M, 81% on Over
Doug's Doc's Take - Play Under
CFB - (363) COASTAL CAROLINA at (364) KANSAS 7:00 ET ESPN+
Les Miles is a successful football coach and currently has an ESPN+ series "Miles To Go", mostly likely try to endear himself with high school football players that Kansas can be a cool place to play. Still, reality still counts to those betting football, and the Jayhawks have slid from -10.5 to -7 v. Coastal Carolina. (Not exactly a power) You know Kansas is almost always terrible and is 2-7 ATS the past 11 years as a single-digit favorite. Update - Betting public is satisfied with line, and it has not budged. I'll give Miles the benefit of the doubt and say Kansas.
Betting Trend - Was 54% backing Kansas, now 58%
Doug's Doc's Take - Kansas covers
CFB - (369) LSU at (370) TEXAS 7:30 ET ABC *New* (side and total)
This is fascinating from a betting perspective as bettors everywhere have talked all week about Texas coach Tom Herman as money as an underdog (10-5 SU and 13-2 ATS), yet the Longhorns have risen from +4.5 to +6.5. At the same time, the total is climbing, lifted from 54 to 57. Actually think the original line was correct and that Texas might be a bit overrated and their running game is suffering from injured backs. Still, Herman's record suggests he's a big game coach. And going past the key number of six, I'll lean with the Horns. What's not to love about the LSU defense, and the Texas defenders will be stout also.
Betting Trend - 56% backing Texas, 51% on Under
Doug's Doc's Take - Lean Texas, Play Under
Tony and Scott also have a pick on LSU vs. Texas
CFB - (377) BUFFALO U. at (378) PENN STATE 7:30 ET FOX
Penn State has seen several players move on to the NFL the last couple seasons. Some wonder coming into 2019, if they could overcome this early in the year. Evidently, the answer is "Yes" as the Nittany Lions are up a whopping 5.5-points to -29.5 vs. Buffalo. Penn State is 10-2 ATS after gaining 575 or more total yards in their previous game. Update - The Nittany Lions are up to - 30.5. This is a "want to" spread for Penn State, meaning if they want to cover they will.
Betting Trend - Was 98% backing Penn State, now 90%
Doug's Doc's Take - Lean Penn State
Public Consensus Record (2019) - 51% to 79% - 173-161-6 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2019) - 80% or Higher - 52-58-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2019) - 216-211-7 ATS
Doug Upstone is the newest handicapper at Doc's Sports and he brings years of experience with him. Doug has 21 documented No. 1 titles and finished in the Top Ten 80 other times in a distinguished career. Doug as a professional handicapper/writer, has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several of the football newsletters you have read before.
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