NCAA Football Week 6 NFL Week 5 Free Picks by Handicapper Doug Upstone
We have all line moves covered for the first weekend of October football action in college football and in the NFL. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (126-101-3 of late) to see what we are thinking about today. See you back here next week.
CFB - (321) BALL STATE at (322) NORTHERN ILLINOIS 12:00 ET ESPN3
Northern Illinois has played three consecutive rough road games at Utah, Nebraska and Vanderbilt. Though not the only reason, but part of it, is why the Huskies are 124th in scoring at 16.7 PPG. This has helped push NIU down from -6.5 to -4.5 in the MAC against Ball State. However, this a step down in class for the Huskies and they are back home and are 18-7 ATS having lost three out of their last four games. And the Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in road contests after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two straight ballgames.
Betting Trend - 72% backing Northern Illinois
Doug's Doc's Take - Northern Illinois covers
CFB - (327) BAYLOR at (328) KANSAS STATE 3:30 ET ESPN2
Baylor's upset of Iowa State and K-State being outgained by 272 yards in the loss to Oklahoma State set the stage for the Wildcats to slide from -3.5 to -1.5. With Kansas State back home, expect them to have more juice and wanting to place that embarrassment behind them. The Wildcats have a good history of doing this with a 12-3 ATS mark after allowing 300 or more rushing yards and 14-3 ATS after being outrushed by 200 or more yards. K-State outright.
Betting Trend - 66% backing Kansas State
Doug's Doc's Take - Kansas State covers
CFB - (351) WASHINGTON at (352) STANFORD 10:30 ET ESPN
With Stanford quarterback K.J. Costello out again, and the Cardinal one play away from being 0-5 ATS (fumble recovery for TD against Northwestern late in 4th QT), the home team has flown from +13.5 to +16 against Washington. However, not giving up on Stanford just yet. the Huskies defense is vulnerable, which is why they lost to Cal and were lucky to cover against USC last week. Also, the Stanford is 8-1 ATS as a home underdog, and this is the biggest home underdog role they have faced since 2008 and should keep the final score around 10 points.
Betting Trend - 57% backing Washington
Doug's Doc's Take - Stanford covers
CFB - (355) IOWA at (356) MICHIGAN 12:00 ET (FOX)
Those making college football picks were unimpressed by Michigan rolling Rutgers 52-0 and dropped them two points to -3.5 at Ann Arbor versus Iowa. The question being asked about the Wolverines is did they fix the offense with their new offensive coordinator Josh Gattis on the sidelines after calling plays upstairs, making it easier to communicate with everyone? Honestly, not really sure, but when looking at both lines, Iowa with an edge on offense and defense. The Hawkeyes O-Line can get a push on Jim Harbaugh's stoop troops, and the Iowa defensive line can make trouble for Michigan. Let's grab the points and half-point hook with Iowa, knowing "Meechigan" (Rece Davis reference) is 3-12 ATS off a blowout win by 28 points or more.
Betting Trend - 55% backing Iowa
Doug's Doc's Take - Iowa covers
CFB - (367) WESTERN MICHIGAN at (368) TOLEDO 3:30 ET ESPN+ (side and total)
Too bad these teams play in the same MAC division and it's not a November weeknight game, since these are probably the two best clubs in the conference. Those following the college football odds have lower lowered Toledo from -4 to -1.5 against Western Michigan. These are two evenly-matched teams, but because the Rockets are at home and essentially just need to win the game, I'll call for them to cover, as they are 10-4 SU in the Glass Bowl at home against this foe. The total also sky-rocketed from 68 to 73, and the best value is gone, yet, these two are 7-1 "Over" in Toledo for a reason.
Betting Trend - 69% backing Toledo and 81% on Over
Doug's Doc's Take - Toledo covers and Over
NFL - (451) BALTIMORE at (452) PITTSBURGH 1:00 ET CBS
The Baltimore defense has been shredded like the Braves Ronald Acuña Jr. (by his teammates for lack of hustle in Game 1 vs. Cardinals), allowing 74 points and 1,033 yards in their past two outings. Though Pittsburgh has been as conservative as a Mormon with Mason Rudolph as their quarterback, the total in this tilt is up two digits to 44 points. Going to agree with the public on this one as the Steelers defense has elements QB Lamar Jackson can exploit and the Ravens are 14-4 Over in road games off an upset loss as a home favorite.
Betting Trend - 59% backing Under
Doug's Doc's Take - Play Over
NFL - (461) NEW ENGLAND at (462) WASHINGTON 1:00 ET CBS
This is not a game I would typically consider because of the point spread, but come on, are you really going to consider backing Washington at +13 (opening line) or at +15 (latest line)? Yeah, didn't think so. With the Redskins turning to rookie Dwayne Haskins to play quarterback, we are all familiar with of Bill Belichick's record against first-year QB's. And, with Tom Brady off a poor game for him, it's a given he will be razor-sharp and the Patriots will climb to 11-3 ATS vs. teams allowing 350 or more yards a game.
Betting Trend - 95% backing New England
Doug's Doc's Take - New England covers
NFL - (475) INDIANAPOLIS at (476) KANSAS CITY 8:20 ET NBC (side and total)
There should be no shortage of points in this AFC affair, which is why the total was pushed two points to 56. Each team is capable of reaching the 28-point mark, which is half the total needed, and both defenses have shown the ability to not contain opposing defenses and allowing the same numbers of points. We know what Kansas City is capable of, and Indianapolis is 17-5 Over in road games vs. teams averaging 260 or more passing yards a game. On the side, the Chiefs jumped from -9 to -11 and that is important in the context of 10 as a key number. Unless K.C. blows their opponent out, there is always the potential for a backdoor cover, and they are 0-10 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards in their last three contests.
Betting Trend - 80% backing Kansas City and 71% on Over
Doug's Doc's Take - Leans Indianapolis cover and Over
Public Consensus Record (2019) - 51% to 79% - 183-177-6 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2019) - 80% or Higher - 57-64-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2019) - 222-231-7 ATS
Doug Upstone is the newest handicapper at Doc's Sports and he brings years of experience with him. Doug has 21 documented No. 1 titles and finished in the Top Ten 80 other times in a distinguished career. Doug as a professional handicapper/writer, has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several of the football newsletters you have read before.
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