NCAA Football Week 10 NFL Week 9 Free Picks by Handicapper Doug Upstone
Let's get November started in breaking down the line moves in college football and the NFL. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (144-119-3 of late) to see what we are thinking about today. See you back here next week.
CFB - (313) OLD DOMINION at (314) FLORIDA INTER. 12:00 ET ESPN+
Among the most popular wise guys plays this week is this Conference USA clash with Florida International jacked up from -14.5 to -17.5. Obviously, those generating college football picks are giving FIU a pass after their 50-17 beat down they received at Middle Tennessee last Saturday. They are instead seeing an Old Dominion team that is 1-7 SU and 128th in scoring at 14.5 points a game. This would not be on my list of best bets, but with the Monarchs 2-9 ATS after allowing 37 points or more in two straight games, the premise is in place.
Betting Trend - 94% backing Florida Inter.
Doug's Doc's Take - Florida Inter. Covers
CFB - (323) MICHIGAN at (324) MARYLAND 12:00 ET ABC
After playing a sharp second half at Penn State and nailing Notre Dame 45-14, the consensus is Michigan is back. The Wolverines have been bumped up like they are on steroids (not saying they are, just like they are), with the college football odds up from -17 to -21.5. Remember when Maryland was putting up video game numbers to start the season? Now they look like the original version of - Pong - (not familiar, Google it). Not crazy about the half-point hook, but I have a system Michigan fits that 25-4 ATS, that says they should win by at least 30 points.
Betting Trend - 89% backing Michigan
Doug's Doc's Take - Michigan covers
CFB - (335) BUFFALO U. at (335) EASTERN MICH. 12:00 ET ESPNU
The bettor's special, MACation starts next Tuesday on the gridiron, however, we have a flipper to talk about as visiting Buffalo has gone from +2 to -1. These are a pair of 4-4 teams that are pedestrian offensively. The line movement is being driven by tickets (64%) and not money (92% on EMU). The majority of the sharp action is on Eastern Michigan, but I'll follow the public even if the Bulls are 1-3 SU on the road because they are 140 YPG better on defense when facing comparable a schedule.
Betting Trend - 64% backing Buffalo
Doug's Doc's Take - Buffalo covers
CFB - (367) UAB at (368) TENNESSEE 7:00 ET ESPNU
When the line came out, this was automatically going to be one to follow. UAB is a money-maker under coach Bill Clark at 30-16 ATS, and the Blazers are in the Top 11 in points allowed (15.7) and total defense (246.8 YPG). Still, the UAB slate has been loaded with lightweights, and the best team they have faced is Western Kentucky, who's handed them their lone defeat. Since starting 0-2 SU and ATS, Tennessee is 4-2 SU and ATS and has a realistic shot a bowl game with a victory Saturday. This matchup started with the Vols at -10, and they have steadily grown to -13. Tennessee is improving and they will have a decided speed edge, plus a lot to play for. Not an overwhelming vote of confidence for the Volunteers, but they get it done.
Betting Trend - 76% backing Tennessee
Doug's Doc's Take - Lean Tennessee covers
CFB - (387) MIAMI-FL at (388) FLORIDA STATE 3:30 ET ABC
During parts of the 1980s, 90s and into this century, this was a marquee matchup. Those days have gone away for, nonetheless, there is a nostalgic element about this Sunshine State showdown that still has appeal. Florida State opened at -5.5 playing in Tallahassee. And like their opponent, the Seminoles are anything but consistent. The Noles and Hurricanes have confounded backers, yet one truth remains, the underdog is 11-3 ATS. Miami has been bet down to +3 but are still worth a look.
Betting Trend - 61% backing Miami-FL
Doug's Doc's Take - Lean Miami-FL covers
NFL - (457) CHICAGO at (458) PHILADELPHIA 1:00 ET FOX
Philadelphia is averaging 25.2 PPG and giving nearly as many up at 24.9 PPG. So, they aren't the reason the total in this NFC conflict has tumbled from 45 to 41.5. Then it has to be the Chicago Bears defense and the continued exploits of Mitchell Trubisky, right? Chicago is averaging 18.3 PPG and allowing only 17.4 PPG, so that makes more sense. However, will the Bears really dictate how the game is played? I think they could, being so desperate for a win. The bigger problem is the complete loss of value, even with the Eagles 9-0 "Under" at home having lost two out of their last three games.
Betting Trend - 55% backing Under
Doug's Doc's Take - Lean Under
NFL - (461) N.Y. JETS at (462) MIAMI 1:00 ET CBS (side and total)
Let's not kid ourselves, this is something only Jets fans or Dolphins fans would give a crap about. The good news for one of these fan bases, somebody comes away with W. The money is following Miami, down from +5.5 to +3. This contest follows the old betting adage - With two rats in a hat (bad teams), take the points. Also, the QB matchup is a fascinating prop bet: Who throws more interceptions, Sam Darnold or Ryan Fitzpatrick? For more conventional NFL picks, the total was lifted from 41 to 42.5. Both offenses make a ton of mistakes and turnovers, but those can hurt or help totals. Not enough offense on either club, besides, the Fins are 10-2 Under after scoring 14 points or fewer points in their last game the last three seasons.
Betting Trend - 59% backing New York, 69% on Over
Doug's Doc's Take - Lean Miami covers and Under
NFL - (473) NEW ENGLAND at (474) BALTIMORE 8:20 ET NBC
There are a lot people that hate all the success New England has earned and they are thinking this could be the game they are knocked off. The Patriots have slipped from -4.5 to -3 at Baltimore, who is at home, off a bye and talented enough to compete with the Pats. For myself, maybe the Ravens have what it takes, but at only three points and the genius of Belichick to keep Lamar Jackson in check, cannot support the home team. New England moves to 11-2 ATS vs. defenses allowing 235 or more passing yards a game.
Betting Trend - 72% backing New England
Doug's Doc's Take - New England covers
Public Consensus Record (2019) - 51% to 79% - 195-191-6 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2019) - 80% or Higher - 61-69-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2019) - 239-249-7 ATS
Doug Upstone is the newest handicapper at Doc's Sports and he brings years of experience with him. Doug has 21 documented No. 1 titles and finished in the Top Ten 80 other times in a distinguished career. Doug as a professional handicapper/writer, has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several of the football newsletters you have read before.
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