NCAA Football Week 9 NFL Week 8 Free Picks by Handicapper Doug Upstone
Coming off a 7-2 week in free football picks last weekend, we move ahead and find the line moves for college football and the NFL and break down more games for you. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (142-112-3 of late) to see what we are thinking about today. See you back here next week.
CFB - (109) ILLINOIS at (110) PURDUE 12:00 ET BTN
Illinois engineered one the biggest upsets in the Big Ten in the last 40 years in stunning Wisconsin last week. Few, however, are convinced the Fighting Illini have turned a corner as they have shot up from +7.5 to +9.5 at Purdue. Monumental upsets are difficult to follow up with, especially on the road, and the Boilermakers have basically overcome the loss of two key offensive players and covered three straight. This number does seem high at this point because Purdue is not that good, nevertheless, the Boilers winning by 10 to 12 is not out of the question either.
Betting Trend - 66% backing Purdue
Doug's Doc's Take - Lean Purdue covers
CFB - (113) TROY at (114) GEORGIA STATE 7:00 ET ESPN+
In Sun Belt action, Georgia State was flipped from +1 to -1.5 point home favorite . The winner stays in the hunt in the SBC East Division and they will have a shot at front-running Appalachian State next month. This is not your typical Troy team that had been scorched for 42 or more points three times in six games. The Panthers have won a covered three straight, all as underdogs and jumps to 13-3 ATS vs. defenses allowing 250 or more passing yards a game.
Betting Trend - 67% backing Georgia State
Doug's Doc's Take - Georgia State covers
CFB - (169) OKLAHOMA STATE at (170) IOWA STATE 3:10 ET FSI
Oklahoma State was thought to be in prime position to knock off unbeaten Baylor at Stillwater last week, but for the second game in a row, they surrendered 45 points and lost. Those looking over the college football odds see an opportunity and saddled up against the Cowboys and shifted them from +8 to +10. Okie State has given up 736 yards via the pass in past two games and goes up against Iowa State QB Brock Purdy and his Top 10 passing game that averages better than 320 YPG. The Cyclones are 12-1 ATS after covering the spread in three out of their last four outings and wins by 13.
Betting Trend - 62% backing Oklahoma State
Doug's Doc's Take - Iowa State covers
CFB - (185) TULANE at (186) NAVY 3:30 ET CBSSN
Though AAC rivals Tulane and Navy both concede 24 or fewer points a contest, the total in this encounter is up three points to 57. Offensively, both have great running games, with Navy No. 1 in the land and Tulane No. 8. The Midshipmen average 37.3 PPG and the Green Wave flows in at 36 PPG. Despite this, for college football picks, I believe the oddsmaker had it right the first time and with the Middies 23-10 "Under" versus teams averaging 230 or more rushing yards a contest, I'll line up on the other side.
Betting Trend - 60% backing Over
Doug's Doc's Take - Play Under
CFB - (207) NOTRE DAME at (208) MICHIGAN 7:30 ET ABC
When this big game was first sent out, Michigan was a two-point home choice. In the days that followed, the Wolverines continued to fall like the temperatures in Ann Arbor and by Thursday Notre Dame was a one-digit favorite. Here is the question to ask yourself. Will we see the Michigan team that quickly fell behind to Penn State 21-0 or the one that dominated the rest of the game from that point and went 21-7 on the Nittany Lions? If you trust the Wolverines will have a carryover, bet them. Instead, a rested Irish squad makes more sense for this handicapper and they climb to 16-6 ATS after allowing seven points or less in the first half of two straight tilts.
Betting Trend - 77% backing Notre Dame
Doug's Doc's Take - Notre Dame covers
NFL - (255) L.A. CHARGERS at (256) CHICAGO 1:00 ET FOX
The Chicago Bears might have a better record than the Carson Chargers, nonetheless, those betting football are more down on the home team. Chicago has been pushed from -5 to -3.5 and the No.1 reason unequivocally of QB Mitchell Trubisky. Before my start at Doc's, I watched Trubisky play at North Carolina and thought he was a solid college quarterback. When I heard people say he was Top 10 material, I laughed out loud. His poor play has even affected the defense, which has given up 320 yards on the ground in two consecutive losses. The Chargers have plenty of problems of their own at 2-5 SU, but I like that they are 42-25 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points and wouldn't be surprised if they won outright.
Betting Trend - 57% backing L.A. Chargers
Doug's Doc's Take - L.A. Chargers covers
NFL - (259) N.Y. JETS at (260) JACKSONVILLE 1:00 ET CBS
This past Monday, plenty of bettors making NFL picks were torched by the New York Jets being destroyed 33-0 by New England. Off the upset of Dallas, those placing football bets thought with Sam Darnold back the Jets had a chance. Gang Green left a bad taste in many people's mouths, and they were lifted from +5 to +6.5 in north Florida. With the Flyboys on a short week and having to travel, everything points towards Jacksonville. In breaking this contest down, the Jets are not as good as they played against the Dallas or as bad as they looked versus the Pats and are somewhere in the middle and cover the +6.5.
Betting Trend - 77% backing Jacksonville
Doug's Doc's Take - N.Y. Jets cover
NFL - (267) OAKLAND at (268) HOUSTON 4:25 ET CBS (side and total)
We have double duty in this AFC affair. Houston is up from -5.5 to -7, and the total has exploded from 48 to 51.5. The Texans have a dynamic passing offense with Deshaun Watson at the controls. After watching Aaron Rodgers abuse the Raiders passing defense for 421 yards and five touchdowns, the double shift in the numbers does make sense. Let's go with the betting masses versus the NFL odds, first, playing against Oakland who is 0-6 ATS in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards. And, finish it off knowing Houston is 18-6 Over in their last 24 October assignments.
Betting Trend - 80% backing Houston, 64% on Over
Doug's Doc's Take - Houston covers and Over
Public Consensus Record (2019) - 51% to 79% - 191-187-6 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2019) - 80% or Higher - 61-68-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2019) - 235-244-7 ATS
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