Baylor Bears vs SMU Mustangs Prediction, 9/6/2025 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Baylor Bears vs SMU Mustangs

Date: Saturday, September 6, 2025

Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, TX

TV: The CW Network

Odds/Point Spread: Mustangs (-2.5)

Total/Over-Under: 65

The SMU Mustangs (1-0) are hosting the Baylor Bears (0-1) at Gerald J. Ford Stadium on Saturday, September 6, 2025. Baylor opens this contest as 2.5-point dogs from Vegas oddsmakers. The betting total is set at 65.

The Baylor Bears come into this matchup with a record of 0-1 this year. In their last matchup, the Bears played against the Auburn Tigers and took a loss by a final of 38-24. The Baylor Bears ran the ball a total of 24 different times and compiled 64 yards, which earned them an average of 2.7 yards per tote. In the game, they tallied 72 plays which gave them a total of 483 yds. Baylor gave up 11 completions on 17 tries for a total of 108 yds, and a completion percentage of 64.7%. In the running game, the Bears conceded 307 yds on 52 attempts, which is an average of 5.9 yards per rush surrendered.

Concerning scoring points, the Baylor Bears have an average of 24.0 points per game. Offensively they're holding an average of 64.0 yards in the run game which ranks them 126th in D-1. The Bears have earned 483 total yards over the course of this year. In terms of getting in the endzone, Baylor has amassed 3 touchdowns through the air. Baylor has tallied 23 1st downs as an offense, and they have committed 6 infractions for 55 yards. They have yet to turn the ball over.

The Bears rank 121st in Division 1 when it comes to team defense, allowing 38.0 points per contest. The opposition is running for 5.9 yards per rush on the ground and 307.0 yards on the ground per game so far this season. Over the course of this season, they have allowed 307 rushing yards through 1 game. Concerning passing yards, the Bears are giving up 108 yards which puts them in 23rd in the nation. They have conceded 108.0 yards per game via the pass and allowed a completion percentage of 64.7%. Overall, they are granting 415.0 yards per outing ranking them 108th in Division 1. They have surrendered 4 touchdowns on the ground.

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The Mustangs come into this matchup with a record of 1-0 for this season. When they last stepped on the field, the Mustangs got the victory with a final of 42-13 when they played the East Texas A&M Lions. SMU ran the football for 4.2 yards per carry, totaling 140 yards on 33 attempts. The Mustangs finished with a total of 400 yds and they ran 63 plays (6.3 yards per play). The Mustangs secondary allowed a completion rate of 46.5%, relinquishing 244 yds on 20 for 43 through the air. SMU relinquished 35 running attempts for 107 yds (3.1 yds per carry).

When it comes to putting points on the board, the Mustangs currently sit 34th in the country by tallying 42.0 points per contest. The SMU Mustangs maintain an average of 400.0 yards per game, ranking them 62nd in Division 1. The SMU offense has racked up 84 yds of penalties on 8 violations, which is 24th in the country in terms of giving up free yards. They have been able to tally 25 1st downs. Over the course of the season to this point, the Mustangs have thrown for a total of 260 yards via the pass, ranking them 37th in Division 1. They maintain an average of 140.0 yards per game.

SMU has allowed the opposition a total of 107 yards on the ground. They have surrendered 244.0 passing yards/outing, which puts them in 101st in college football. They have compiled 1 fumble recovery and 2 interceptions so far this season. The Mustangs defense has been on the field for 78 plays, which is good for 118th in D-1. The Mustangs are surrendering 13.0 points per game, ranking them 54th in the nation.

Who will win tonight's Bears/Mustangs college football game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Mustangs -2.5

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