North Texas Mean Green vs San Diego State Aztecs Prediction, 12/27/2025 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: North Texas Mean Green vs San Diego State Aztecs

Date: Saturday, December 27, 2025

Location: University Stadium in Albuquerque, NM

TV: ESPN

Odds/Point Spread: Aztecs (+3.0)

Total/Over-Under: 54

The North Texas Mean Green (11-2) are en route to University Stadium on Saturday, December 27, 2025 where they will compete against the San Diego State Aztecs (9-3) in the Isleta New Mexico Bowl. North Texas opens this game as 3.0-point favorites. The total has been set at 54.

The North Texas Mean Green step onto the field holding a record of 11-2 for this season. In their last contest, the Mean Green took the field against the Tulane Green Wave and took a loss by a final of 34-21. On the ground, the Mean Green gave up 199 yards on 52 tries, which is an average of 3.8 yds per run surrendered. North Texas gave up 13 completions on 22 attempts for a total of 145 yards, and a completion rate of 59.1%. For the game, they ran 68 plays which totaled 415 yards. The North Texas Mean Green ran the football 34 different times and tallied 121 yds, which had them averaging 3.6 yards per carry.

The Mean Green have attained 6,556 total yards for the year. When it comes to distribution of touchdowns, North Texas has compiled 33 touchdowns through the air and 46 touchdowns via the ground. They have given the ball to the opposition 17 times. North Texas has accounted for 334 first downs offensively, and they have been hurt by 68 penalties for 547 yds. Offensively they're averaging 181.1 yards on the ground which is 41st in college football. Regarding scoring, the North Texas Mean Green are averaging 44.8 points per contest.

Concerning yards via the pass, the Mean Green are allowing 2,122 yds which ranks them 13th in D-1. They are allowing 163.2 yards per game through the air and giving up a completion percentage of 56.8%. For the season, they are allowing 370.4 yards/outing which ranks them 64th in the nation. They have allowed 16 touchdowns by air in addition to 23 touchdowns pounding the rock. They are giving up 4.8 yards per rush and 207.2 yards on the ground per contest so far this season. In total, they have given up 2,694 running yards through 13 contests. The Mean Green are sitting in 70th in the nation concerning team defense, allowing 24.9 points per game.

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The Aztecs step onto the field holding a record of 9-3 for this season. When they last stepped on the field, the Aztecs took a loss by a final score of 23-17 when they faced the New Mexico Lobos. San Diego State ran for 4.6 yards per carry, finishing the contest with 193 yds on 42 attempts. The Aztecs finished with a total of 355 yds on 66 plays (5.4 yards per play). The Aztecs passing defense conceded a completion rate of 56.0%, surrendering 127 yards on 14 out of 25 through the air. San Diego State surrendered 35 run attempts for 181 yds (5.2 yds per carry).

When it comes to their scoring prowess, the Aztecs are sitting 90th in D-1 averaging 24.7 points per contest. The San Diego State Aztecs have an average of 341.8 yards per outing, which is good for 104th in D-1. The San Diego State offense has 650 yds of penalties on 72 infractions, which has them sitting 75th in the nation in terms of making mistakes. They have given away 8 picks while losing 4 fumbles and they have obtained 209 first downs. During this campaign thus far, the Aztecs currently have a total of 1,844 passing yards together with holding an average of 153.7 passing yards per game, which ranks 125th in college football. They are averaging 188.1 rushing yards per game and have run for 2,257 yards for the season.

San Diego State has allowed a total of 1,316 yards via the ground game (109.7 yards/game) and 5 touchdowns via the rush for the season. They have allowed the opposition 11 touchdowns via the pass in addition to 157.0 yards/outing, which has them ranked 4th in the country. This season, they have allowed 151 points in total. They have earned 4 fumbles and 13 interceptions this season. The Aztecs defense has taken the field for 778 plays, which is 32nd in Division 1. The Aztecs are surrendering 12.6 points per contest, ranking them 5th in college football.

Who will win tonight's Mean Green/Aztecs college football game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Mean Green -3.0

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