SMU Mustangs vs TCU Horned Frogs Prediction, 9/20/2025 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: SMU Mustangs vs TCU Horned Frogs

Date: Saturday, September 20, 2025

Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, TX

TV: ESPN2

Odds/Point Spread: Horned Frogs (-7.0)

Total/Over-Under: 64

The SMU Mustangs (2-1) are en route to Amon G. Carter Stadium on Saturday, September 20, 2025 where they will take on the TCU Horned Frogs (2-0). TCU opens this contest as 7.0-point favorites. The over/under is set at 64.

The SMU Mustangs head into this matchup 2-1 this season. In their last game, the Mustangs faced off with the Missouri State Bears and earned the victory with a final of 28-10. In all, they tallied 70 plays which gave them 448 yards. The SMU Mustangs ran the ball a total of 34 different times and amassed 167 yards, which had them averaging 4.9 yards per carry. On the ground, the Mustangs gave up 53 yds on 27 tries, which is an average of 2.0 yards per run allowed. SMU conceded 23 completions on 38 attempts for 275 yds, and a completion percentage of 60.5%.

The Mustangs have earned 1,306 total yards for the year. When it comes to distribution of touchdowns, SMU has totaled 6 touchdowns via the pass and 8 rushing touchdowns. They have turned the football over 6 times. SMU has earned 72 first downs as a unit, and they have committed 26 penalties for 269 yds. As a unit they average 156.7 yards via the ground game which ranks them 76th in the country. When talking about scoring points, the SMU Mustangs have an average of 38.3 points per contest.

When it comes to yards via the pass, the Mustangs have allowed 959 yards which ranks them 134th in the nation. They have allowed 319.7 yards per game via the pass as well as allowing a completion percentage of 58.8%. For the season, they are allowing 426.7 yards per outing which has them sitting 113th in college football. They have yielded 5 touchdowns through the air in addition to 3 touchdowns via the ground game. The opposition is running for an average of 3.0 yards per running attempt and 107.0 rushing yards per game on the campaign. For the year, they have given up 321 rushing yards through 3 games. The Mustangs are sitting in 79th in D-1 in terms of their opponents scoring, conceding 23.7 PPG.

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The Horned Frogs step onto the field holding a record of 2-0 for this year. In their last game, the Horned Frogs went home victorious with a score of 42-21 when they faced the Abilene Christian Wildcats. TCU rushed for 4.6 yards per attempt, finishing the game with 128 yds on 28 attempts. The Horned Frogs finished the game with a total of 489 yds while they ran 60 plays (8.2 yards per play). The Horned Frogs secondary gave up a completion percentage of 75.9%, relinquishing 276 yds on 22 out of 29 through the air. TCU surrendered 46 rush attempts for 177 yards (3.8 yards per carry).

The TCU Horned Frogs average 515.5 yards/game, which is good for 16th in the country. The TCU offense has 104 yds of penalties on 9 infractions, which ranks 129th in the country in terms of giving up free yards. They maintain an average of 193.0 rushing yards per game and have toted the ball for 386 yards for the year. They have tossed 2 interceptions and they have been able to tally 53 1st downs. When it comes to their ability to score points, the Horned Frogs are 16th in D-1 averaging 45.0 PPG. During the season so far, the Horned Frogs have thrown for 645 yards through the air not to mention holding an average of 322.5 throwing yards per game, which has them sitting 18th in D-1.

TCU has surrendered a total of 227 yards on the ground (113.5 yards per game) and 2 touchdowns via the rush on the campaign. They have yielded 3 touchdowns via the pass and 224.0 yards/outing, ranking them 88th in D-1. This season, they have relinquished 35 total points. Their defense has 2 fumbles recovered and 1 interception on the campaign. The Horned Frogs defense has participated in 124 plays, which is good for 11th in the nation. The Horned Frogs are allowing 17.5 points per contest, which has them 44th in D-1.

Who will win tonight's Mustangs/Horned Frogs college football game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Horned Frogs -7.0

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