Toledo Rockets vs Louisville Cardinals Prediction, 12/23/2025 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Toledo Rockets vs Louisville Cardinals

Date: Tuesday, December 23, 2025

Location: Flagler Credit Union Stadium in Boca Raton, FL

TV: ESPN

Odds/Point Spread: Cardinals (-6.5)

Total/Over-Under: 44.5

The Louisville Cardinals (8-4) are hosting the Toledo Rockets (8-4) at Flagler Credit Union Stadium on Tuesday, December 23, 2025 in the Bush's Boca Raton Bowl. Louisville opens as 6.5-point favorites. The over/under comes in at 44.5.

The Toledo Rockets come into this matchup with a record of 8-4 this season. In their last contest, the Rockets took on the Central Michigan Chippewas and took home the win by a score of 21-3. In the running game, the Rockets conceded 81 yds on 36 tries, which calculates to 2.3 yds per run allowed. Toledo surrendered 19 pass completions on 30 tries for 242 yds, and a completion rate of 63.3%. For the game, they ran 61 plays which gave them 411 yards. The Toledo Rockets ran the football 37 times and totaled 205 yds, which came out to an average of 5.5 yds per attempt.

Regarding scoring points, the Toledo Rockets have an average of 31.6 PPG. As a team they average 177.8 yards in the run game ranking this team at 44th in D-1. The Rockets have tallied 5,062 total yards for the season. When it comes to distribution of touchdowns, Toledo has totaled 26 touchdowns via the pass and 22 touchdowns via the ground. Toledo has a total of 256 first downs as an offense, and they have committed 97 penalties for 871 yards. They have given the ball to the opposition 14 different times.

When it comes to yards through the air, the Rockets are allowing 1,901 yds which has them ranked 6th in D-1. They have conceded 158.4 yards per game through the air and allowed a completion percentage of 48.9%. In total, they are granting 247.8 yards/game ranking them 2nd in Division 1. They have surrendered 10 touchdowns through the air in addition to 10 touchdowns via the ground game. The opposition is running for an average of 2.5 yards per attempt on the ground and 89.3 rushing yards per contest for the year. For the year, they have given up 1,072 rushing yards through 12 games. The Rockets are ranked 4th in college football when it comes to team defense, allowing 12.2 points per game.

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The Cardinals head into this matchup 8-4 for this season. When they last stepped on the gridiron, the Cardinals walked away with a victory by a final of 41-0 when they played the Kentucky Wildcats. Louisville rushed the ball for 5.2 yds per attempt, totaling 258 yards on 50 attempts. The Cardinals finished the contest with a total of 440 yds while they ran 71 plays (6.2 yards per play). The Cardinals pass defense gave up a completion rate of 50.0%, surrendering 100 yards on 13 for 26 through the air. Louisville surrendered 26 rushing attempts for 40 yards (1.5 yards per rush).

When it comes to their ability to score points, the Cardinals are 45th in D-1 scoring 30.2 PPG. The Louisville Cardinals are averaging 388.8 yards per contest, which has them sitting 70th in the nation. The Louisville offense has totaled 774 yards of penalties on 84 violations, ranking them 37th in the country in terms of hurting your team. They have tossed 10 interceptions while losing 7 fumbles and they have been able to earn 235 first downs. During the season so far, the Cardinals have thrown for a total of 2,716 passing yards along with an average of 226.3 passing yards per game, giving them a rank of 67th in D-1. They are averaging 162.6 yards per game via the rush and have run for 1,951 yards for the year.

Louisville has conceded a total of 1,318 yards on the ground (109.8 yards/game) in addition to 12 touchdowns by way of the ground game on the season. They have surrendered 14 touchdowns via the pass and 190.6 yards/game, which has them ranked 26th in college football. This season, they have given up 253 total points. They have totaled 5 fumbles and 14 interceptions so far this year. The Cardinals defense has participated in 768 plays, which is 27th in college football. The Cardinals are relinquishing 21.1 points per contest, which has them 36th in college football.

Who will win tonight's Rockets/Cardinals college football game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Rockets +6.5

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