UMass Minutemen vs Missouri Tigers Prediction, 9/27/2025 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: UMass Minutemen vs Missouri Tigers

Date: Saturday, September 27, 2025

Location: Memorial Stadium in Columbia, MO

TV: ESPNU

Odds/Point Spread: Tigers (-43.5)

Total/Over-Under: 56.5

The UMass Minutemen (0-3) are traveling to Memorial Stadium on Saturday, September 27, 2025 where they will try to defeat the Missouri Tigers (4-0). UMass opens this matchup as 43.5-point dogs. The over/under is 56.5.

The UMass Minutemen head into this game 0-3 for this season. The last time they stepped onto the field, the Minutemen played the Iowa Hawkeyes and took a loss by a score of 47-7. When it came to stopping the run, the Minutemen gave up 201 yards on 40 attempts, which is an average of 5.0 yds per run allowed. UMass conceded 21 pass completions on 31 tries for a total of 234 yds, and a completion percentage of 67.7%. For the game, they ran 49 plays which totaled 119 yds. The UMass Minutemen ended up running the ball 27 times and amassed 26 yds, which had them averaging 1.0 yards per tote.

Regarding putting the ball in the endzone, the UMass Minutemen have an average of 14.3 points per outing. Offensively they're averaging 76.7 yards via the ground game which ranks them 131st in D-1. The Minutemen have earned 779 total yards this season. When it comes to scoring touchdowns, UMass has earned 0 touchdown through the air and 4 rushing touchdowns. UMass has accounted for 47 1st downs offensively, and they have committed 15 infractions for 135 yds. They have turned the ball over 3 different times.

The Minutemen are ranked 130th in D-1 when it comes to team defense, allowing 38.7 PPG. They are giving up an average of 4.6 yards per run and 157.7 yards on the ground per game for the year. During this campaign, they have allowed 473 yards via the ground game in 3 contests. When it comes to passing yards, the Minutemen are conceding 828 yards which has them sitting in 77th in college football. They have allowed 276.0 yards per outing via the pass and giving up a completion percentage of 62.0%. Overall, they are allowing 433.7 yards/game ranking them 124th in Division 1. They have surrendered 12 touchdowns via the pass in addition to 2 touchdowns on the ground.

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The Tigers come into this game with a record of 4-0 this season. For their last game, the Tigers took home the win by a final score of 29-20 when they faced the South Carolina Gamecocks. Missouri conceded 22 attempts on the ground for -9 yds (-0.4 yds per rush). The Tigers pass defense gave up a completion rate of 64.3%, relinquishing 302 yds on 18 for 28 through the air. The Tigers finished with a total of 456 yds on 75 plays (6.1 yds per play). Missouri ran the ball for 5.9 yds per carry, finishing with 285 yds on 48 attempts.

The Missouri Tigers average 554.3 yards/game, which has them sitting 6th in college football. The Missouri offense has totaled 229 penalty yards on 23 violations, which is good for 64th in D-1 in terms of making mistakes. They hold an average of 298.0 yards per game via the rush and have rushed for 1,192 yards for this year. They have tossed 2 interceptions while letting opponents recover 1 fumble and they have been able to tally 114 1st downs. When discussing their scoring prowess, the Tigers are 10th in Division 1 by scoring 46.0 points per game. During this campaign to this point, the Tigers have compiled 1,025 yards via the pass in addition to an average of 256.3 passing yards per game, which has them ranked 48th in D-1.

The Tigers are conceding 16.8 PPG, which has them 35th in the nation. Missouri has allowed a total of 293 yards on the ground (73.3 yards per game) as well as 2 touchdowns rushing this season. They have allowed the opposition 5 touchdowns from the passing game as well as 150.5 yards per game, which puts them in 19th in the country. The Tigers defense has been on the field for 197 plays, which ranks 29th in the nation. They have earned 1 fumble recovered and 2 interceptions on the campaign. Over the course of the season, they have conceded 67 points in total.

Who will win tonight's Minutemen/Tigers college football game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Minutemen +43.5

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