Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction, 10/3/2026 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs

Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026

Location: Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, MS

TV: ABC

Odds/Point Spread: Bulldogs (+5.5)

Total/Over-Under: 59.5

Davis Wade Stadium is the site where the Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-0) will meet the Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0) on Saturday, October 3, 2026. Alabama opens this matchup as 5.5-point favorites. The betting total comes in at 59.5.

The Alabama Crimson Tide head into this matchup 4-0 for this year. In their last game, the Crimson Tide played the South Carolina Gamecocks and notched a win by a score of 49-18. On the ground, the Crimson Tide conceded 216 yds on 40 tries, which averages out to 5.4 yds per run allowed. Alabama surrendered 20 completions on 33 tries for 203 yards, and a completion rate of 60.6%. For the game, they ran 57 plays which converted into 489 yds. The Alabama Crimson Tide ended up rushing 30 times and totaled 124 yds, which is an average of 4.1 yards per carry.

In terms of scoring, the Alabama Crimson Tide have an average of 48.0 points per outing. As a team they're maintaining an average of 188.3 yards in the run game which ranks them 41st in the country. The Crimson Tide have tallied 1,886 total yards for the year. In terms of scoring touchdowns, Alabama has compiled 8 touchdowns through the air and 13 rushing touchdowns. Alabama has compiled 95 1st downs as a unit, and they have been called for 25 infractions for 165 yds. They have turned the ball over 4 times.

In terms of passing yards, the Crimson Tide have allowed 886 yds which puts them in 89th in Division 1. They have relinquished 221.5 yards per contest through the air in addition to conceding a completion percentage of 58.3%. In total, they are granting 315.3 yards per game ranking them 47th in college football. They have granted 5 touchdowns via the pass in addition to 4 touchdowns via the ground game. Opposing teams are running for an average of 2.9 yards per run and 93.8 rushing yards per game on the season. Overall, they have conceded 375 running yards through 4 games. The Crimson Tide sit in 47th in the country concerning the opposition scoring, allowing 20.3 points per game.

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The Bulldogs head into this game 4-0 for this season. The last time they took the field, the Bulldogs got the win with a final of 31-24 when they faced the Missouri Tigers. Mississippi State relinquished 35 run attempts for 119 yds (3.4 yards per carry). The Bulldogs pass defense gave up a completion percentage of 57.5%, relinquishing 295 yds on 23 for 40 passing. The Bulldogs finished with 499 yds while they ran 78 plays (6.4 yards per play). Mississippi State ran the ball for 3.5 yds per attempt, finishing the contest with 139 yards on 40 attempts.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs maintain an average of 533.3 yards per outing, which has them sitting 4th in college football. The Mississippi State offense has 320 penalty yds on 36 violations, which ranks them 10th in college football in terms of making mistakes. They are averaging 217.8 rushing yards per game and have run for 871 yards for the year. They have given away 2 picks while letting opponents recover 1 fumble and they have obtained 109 first downs. Regarding the points being put on the board, the Bulldogs currently rank 15th in college football averaging 43.0 points per contest. For the season so far, the Bulldogs have compiled 1,262 yards via the pass along with holding an average of 315.5 passing yards per contest, which has them sitting 13th in D-1.

Mississippi State has allowed the opposition a total of 419 yards rushing (104.8 yards/game) and 1 touchdown rushing this year. They have given up 6 touchdowns through the air in addition to 249.0 yards per game, ranking them 114th in Division 1. In total, they have relinquished 84 pts. Their defense has tallied no fumbles recovered and 2 interceptions on the campaign. The Bulldogs defense has been on the field for 285 plays, which ranks 115th in the country. The Bulldogs are allowing 21.0 points per game, which has them 53rd in the country.

Who will win tonight's Crimson Tide/Bulldogs college football game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Crimson Tide -5.5

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