Florida State Seminoles vs Louisville Cardinals Prediction, 10/9/2026 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Florida State Seminoles vs Louisville Cardinals

Date: Friday, October 9, 2026

Location: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Louisville, KY

TV: ESPN

Odds/Point Spread: Cardinals (-4.5)

Total/Over-Under: 58.5

The Louisville Cardinals (2-3) will try to beat the Florida State Seminoles (3-2) at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium on Friday, October 9, 2026. Louisville opens this game as 4.5-point favorites from oddsmakers. The over/under has been set at 58.5.

The Florida State Seminoles head into this game 3-2 for this season. In their last matchup, the Seminoles took on the Virginia Cavaliers and notched a win by a score of 38-7. In the game, they had 65 plays which gave them a total of 464 yds. The Florida State Seminoles ran the ball a total of 46 times and totaled 281 yds, which is an average of 6.1 yds per carry. In the running game, the Seminoles conceded 37 yards on 40 attempts, which is 0.9 yards per run allowed. Florida State relinquished 14 pass completions on 32 tries for 168 yards, and a completion percentage of 43.8%.

Regarding getting in the endzone, the Florida State Seminoles are sitting at 33.2 points per contest. As a unit they're maintaining an average of 194.0 yards on the ground ranking them 40th in D-1. The Seminoles have earned 2,095 total yards for the year. In terms of getting the ball in the endzone, Florida State has totaled 6 passing touchdowns and 15 touchdowns via the ground. Florida State has a total of 99 first downs as an offense, and they have been hurt by 33 penalties for 332 yards. They have turned the football over 7 times.

The Seminoles are sitting in 56th in college football when it comes to team defense, conceding 21.6 PPG. They are allowing teams to run for an average of 3.4 yards per rushing attempt and 119.2 rushing yards per game on the season. In total, they have allowed 596 yards via the running game in 5 outings. When it comes to passing yards, the Seminoles have given up 1,328 yds which has them ranked 125th in D-1. They have allowed 265.6 yards per outing via the pass as well as allowing a completion percentage of 60.8%. In total, they are surrendering 384.8 yards per game which has them sitting 103rd in the country. They have yielded 9 touchdowns through the air as well as 4 touchdowns running the ball.

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The Cardinals come into this game with a record of 2-3 this year. In their last game, the Cardinals took a loss by a final score of 31-28 when they faced the NC State Wolfpack. The Cardinals finished the contest with 485 yards and they ran 55 plays (8.8 yards per play). Louisville ran for 9.2 yards per attempt, totaling 231 yards on 25 carries. Louisville surrendered 43 attempts on the ground for 120 yds (2.8 yds per rush). The Cardinals secondary conceded a completion percentage of 61.0%, relinquishing 373 yds on 25 for 41 passing.

The Louisville Cardinals average 486.0 yards per outing, which is good for 17th in the country. The Louisville offense has compiled 412 yds of penalties on 39 infractions, which has them ranked 20th in the country in terms of helping out the opposition. They maintain an average of 198.6 run yards per game and have rushed for 993 yards for the year. They have thrown 1 pick while losing 3 fumbles and they have been able to obtain 117 first downs. When discussing how much they score, the Cardinals rank 22nd in the country by scoring 38.6 points per game. For the season thus far, the Cardinals currently sit at 1,437 yards via the pass along with holding an average of 287.4 passing yards per game, which ranks 25th in the country.

Louisville has allowed the opposition a total of 781 yards via the ground game (156.2 yards per contest) and 8 touchdowns via the rush for the year. They have allowed 8 touchdowns from the passing game as well as 266.8 yards/game, ranking them 130th in the country. This year, they have relinquished 146 points. Their defense has compiled 4 fumbles and 4 interceptions this year. The Cardinals defense has participated in 365 plays, which ranks 131st in the country. The Cardinals are conceding 29.2 points per game, which has them sitting 113th in the nation.

Who will win tonight's Seminoles/Cardinals college football game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Cardinals -4.5

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