Illinois Fighting Illini vs Michigan State Spartans Prediction, 10/10/2026 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Illinois Fighting Illini vs Michigan State Spartans

Date: Saturday, October 10, 2026

Location: Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, MI

TV: FS1

Odds/Point Spread: Spartans (+2.5)

Total/Over-Under: 49

The Michigan State Spartans (2-3) will compete against the Illinois Fighting Illini (2-3) at Spartan Stadium on Saturday, October 10, 2026. Michigan State opens as 2.5-point underdogs from oddsmakers. The total comes in at 49.

The Illinois Fighting Illini come into this matchup with a record of 2-3 for this season. The last time they stepped onto the field, the Fighting Illini played the Purdue Boilermakers and took a loss by a final of 24-17. The Illinois Fighting Illini ran the ball a total of 27 times and accounted for 120 yds, which had them averaging 4.4 yds per attempt. When all was said and done, they ran 64 plays which converted into 345 yds. Illinois relinquished 18 pass completions on 27 attempts for a total of 255 yds, and a completion rate of 66.7%. Against the run, the Fighting Illini conceded 90 yds on 33 attempts, which averages out to 2.7 yards per run surrendered.

The Fighting Illini have earned 2,024 yards in total this season. When it comes to getting the ball in the endzone, Illinois has compiled 11 passing touchdowns and 6 rushing touchdowns. They have turned the ball over 3 times. Illinois has a total of 112 first downs, and they have been hurt by 23 infractions for 216 yards. Offensively they average 155.6 yards on the ground ranking them 75th in college football. Regarding putting points on the board, the Illinois Fighting Illini are sitting at 30.6 PPG.

The Fighting Illini are sitting in 95th in college football when it comes to team defense, conceding 26.0 points per game. Opposing teams are running for an average of 3.6 yards per run and 126.8 rushing yards per contest so far this season. Overall, they have conceded 634 yards via the ground game in 5 games. In terms of yards via the pass, the Fighting Illini have allowed 1,275 yards which ranks them 116th in the nation. They are allowing 255.0 yards per game through the air in addition to conceding a completion percentage of 63.3%. During this campaign, they are surrendering 381.8 yards/outing putting them 99th in D-1. They have conceded 10 touchdowns via the pass as well as 5 touchdowns running the ball.

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The Spartans come into this game with a record of 2-3 this year. The last time they took the field, the Spartans took a defeat with a final score of 31-3 when they played the Wisconsin Badgers. Michigan State gave up 42 run attempts for 228 yds (5.4 yds per carry). The Spartans pass defense conceded a completion rate of 45.0%, relinquishing 145 yards on 9 out of 20 passing. The Spartans finished with 235 yds on 79 plays (3.0 yds per play). Michigan State rushed the football for 2.8 yards per attempt, finishing the game with 127 yds on 45 attempts.

The Michigan State Spartans hold an average of 305.6 yards/outing, ranking them 126th in the country. The Michigan State offense has racked up 170 yds of penalties on 16 violations, which ranks 136th in the nation in terms of giving up free yards. They have an average of 123.6 rushing yards per game and have run for 618 yards for the year. They have thrown 4 interceptions while conceding 2 fumbles and they have earned 102 1st downs. In relation to their ability to score points, the Spartans are sitting 125th in the country with 18.2 points per game. During this campaign thus far, the Spartans have earned 910 yards via the pass in addition to an average of 182.0 passing yards per contest, giving them a rank of 110th in college football.

The Spartans are giving up 23.2 PPG, which puts them 66th in Division 1. Michigan State has allowed the opposition a total of 724 yards rushing (144.8 yards per contest) as well as 8 touchdowns on the ground on the campaign. They have given up 7 touchdowns from the passing game and 181.0 yards per game, ranking them 38th in Division 1. The Spartans defense has taken part in 290 plays, which is 41st in Division 1. Their defense has earned 1 fumble recovery and 1 interception on the campaign. In total, they have surrendered 116 total points.

Who will win tonight's Fighting Illini/Spartans college football game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Fighting Illini -2.5

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