Liberty Flames vs New Mexico State Aggies Prediction, 11/7/2026 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Liberty Flames vs New Mexico State Aggies

Date: Saturday, November 7, 2026

Location: Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces, NM

TV: ESPN+

Odds/Point Spread: Aggies (+16.5)

Total/Over-Under: 46.5

The Liberty Flames (7-1) are hitting the road to Aggie Memorial Stadium on Saturday, November 7, 2026 where they will meet the New Mexico State Aggies (3-5). Liberty opens this matchup as 16.5-point favorites. The over/under has been set at 46.5.

The Liberty Flames step onto the field holding a record of 7-1 for this year. The last time they stepped onto the field, the Flames went up against the FIU Panthers and notched a win by a score of 49-10. The Liberty Flames ended up running the ball 35 different times and tallied 145 yds, earning them an average of 4.1 yds per carry. Once the final whistle blew, they had 58 plays for 391 yards. Liberty gave up 22 pass completions on 31 attempts for 176 yards, and a completion rate of 71.0%. When it came to stopping the run, the Flames gave up 34 yds on 23 tries, which averages out to 1.5 yards per rush allowed.

The Flames have tallied 3,288 total yards for the year. In terms of distribution of touchdowns, Liberty has compiled 13 touchdowns via the pass and 21 rushing touchdowns. They have surrendered the ball 6 different times. Liberty has a total of 174 first downs as a team, and they have been called for 77 penalties for 660 yards. As a team they average 212.3 yards via the ground game ranking them 17th in college football. When it comes to putting points on the board, the Liberty Flames hold an average of 33.8 PPG.

The Flames sit in 7th in D-1 in terms of team defense, giving up 13.5 points per contest. They are allowing an average of 3.6 yards per rushing attempt and 105.1 rushing yards per game for the campaign. During the season, they have conceded 841 yards via the ground game in 8 games. Regarding passing yards, the Flames have allowed 1,416 yards which has them sitting in 18th in D-1. They have conceded 177.0 yards per outing via the pass and allowed a completion percentage of 55.6%. Overall, they are surrendering 282.1 yards/game ranking them 13th in the nation. They have yielded 6 touchdowns through the air and 4 touchdowns pounding the rock.

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The Aggies head into this matchup 3-5 for this year. In their last game, the Aggies went home defeated by a final of 24-0 when they played the Jacksonville State Gamecocks. New Mexico State ran for 5.7 yards per carry, finishing with 194 yards on 34 carries. The Aggies finished the game with 217 yds and they ran 54 plays (4.0 yards per play). The Aggies pass defense allowed a completion rate of 64.7%, surrendering 104 yds on 11 for 17 through the air. New Mexico State conceded 47 running attempts for 324 yds (6.9 yards per carry).

The New Mexico State Aggies have an average of 352.5 yards/outing, which is good for 100th in college football. The New Mexico State offense has 405 penalty yards on 52 violations, which has them sitting 71st in the country in terms of giving up free yards. They maintain an average of 156.8 yards via the ground game and have toted the ball for 1,254 yards for this year. They have thrown 10 interceptions while surrendering 4 fumbles and they have tallied 144 1st downs. Regarding their scoring prowess, the Aggies rank 113th in the country with an average of 21.5 points per outing. For the year so far, the Aggies have thrown for a total of 1,566 passing yards as well as holding an average of 195.8 passing yards per contest, putting them at 104th in college football.

The Aggies are relinquishing 25.3 points per contest, which has them ranked 75th in Division 1. New Mexico State has given up a total of 1,088 yards via the ground game (136.0 yards/game) in addition to 16 touchdowns via the rush this year. They have allowed 6 touchdowns from the passing game in addition to 209.1 yards/outing, ranking them 67th in the nation. The Aggies defense has been on the field for 518 plays, which ranks 57th in the nation. They have earned 2 fumbles and 8 interceptions on the season. This year, they have surrendered 202 total points.

Who will win tonight's Flames/Aggies college football game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Flames -16.5

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