Missouri State Bears vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Prediction, 10/8/2026 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Missouri State Bears vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Date: Thursday, October 8, 2026

Location: Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium in Bowling Green, KY

TV: CBSSN

Odds/Point Spread: Hilltoppers (-2.5)

Total/Over-Under: 55.5

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (1-4) will take on the Missouri State Bears (1-3) at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium on Thursday, October 8, 2026. Western Kentucky opens this contest as 2.5-point favorites from oddsmakers. The over/under is set at 55.5.

The Missouri State Bears head into this game 1-3 for this year. The last time they took the field, the Bears played the SMU Mustangs and ended up losing by a score of 34-24. The Missouri State Bears ran the ball 28 times and accounted for 68 yards, which is an average of 2.4 yards per tote. For the game, they had 62 plays which gave them 239 yds. Missouri State conceded 33 completions on 39 attempts for a total of 464 yds, and a completion rate of 84.6%. On the ground, the Bears conceded 128 yds on 40 attempts, which is 3.2 yards per rush surrendered.

The Bears have earned 1,381 yards in total for the year. When it comes to scoring touchdowns, Missouri State has totaled 5 passing touchdowns and 7 rushing touchdowns. They have turned the football over 4 different times. Missouri State has amassed 69 1st downs as a unit, and they have been hurt by 38 infractions for 278 yards. As a unit they average 135.0 yards in the run game which ranks them 100th in Division 1. In terms of putting points on the board, the Missouri State Bears hold an average of 24.0 points per contest.

The Bears are ranked 122nd in the country regarding team defense, giving up 32.0 points per contest. They are giving up an average of 4.5 yards per rushing attempt and 187.3 rushing yards per game on the campaign. Over the course of this season, they have allowed 749 yards via the ground game in 4 outings. In terms of yards through the air, the Bears have conceded 1,010 yards which puts them in 72nd in Division 1. They are allowing 252.5 yards per contest via the pass as well as giving up a completion percentage of 67.5%. Overall, they have allowed 439.8 yards/outing putting them at 130th in the nation. They have relinquished 9 touchdowns via the pass as well as 7 touchdowns via the ground game.

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The Hilltoppers head into this matchup 1-4 for this year. The last time they took the gridiron, the Hilltoppers went home defeated by a final of 34-13 when they played the New Mexico State Aggies. Western Kentucky conceded 34 run attempts for 206 yds (6.1 yds per carry). The Hilltoppers passing defense gave up a completion rate of 57.7%, relinquishing 146 yds on 15 out of 26 passing. The Hilltoppers finished the game with a total of 361 yds while running 75 plays (4.8 yards per play). Western Kentucky ended up running for 1.5 yards per attempt, totaling 46 yards on 31 carries.

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are averaging 347.0 yards per contest, which has them sitting 104th in the nation. The Western Kentucky offense has accrued 198 penalty yards on 25 violations, which has them ranked 113th in the nation in terms of helping out the opposition. They maintain an average of 115.0 run yards per game and have rushed for 575 yards in total. They have given away 4 picks while conceding 5 fumbles and they have been able to earn 92 first downs. In relation to how much they score, the Hilltoppers are ranked 117th in Division 1 by tallying 19.8 points per outing. For the year so far, the Hilltoppers currently sit at 1,160 yards via the pass in addition to an average of 232.0 passing yards per contest, which ranks 69th in D-1.

Western Kentucky has allowed a total of 1,088 yards rushing (217.6 yards/game) in addition to 13 touchdowns on the ground this season. They have conceded 11 touchdowns through the air as well as 204.0 yards per game, which has them in 64th in D-1. Over the course of the season, they have surrendered 198 total points. Their defense has earned 2 fumbles and 2 interceptions on the year. The Hilltoppers defense has been on the field for 311 plays, which has them ranked 68th in the country. The Hilltoppers are allowing 39.6 points per game, which has them ranked 135th in Division 1.

Who will win tonight's Bears/Hilltoppers college football game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Bears +2.5

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