North Carolina Tar Heels vs Duke Blue Devils Prediction, 10/17/2026 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: North Carolina Tar Heels vs Duke Blue Devils

Date: Saturday, October 17, 2026

Location: Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, NC

TV: ESPN2

Odds/Point Spread: Blue Devils (-4.0)

Total/Over-Under: 46.5

The Duke Blue Devils (4-1) are hosting the North Carolina Tar Heels (3-2) at Wallace Wade Stadium on Saturday, October 17, 2026. North Carolina opens this matchup as 4-point underdogs from oddsmakers. The over/under is set at 46.5.

The North Carolina Tar Heels step onto the field holding a record of 3-2 this year. The last time they took the field, the Tar Heels faced the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and took a loss by a score of 37-26. The North Carolina Tar Heels ended up rushing 23 different times and had 77 yds, earning them an average of 3.3 yards per tote. In the game, they ran 51 plays which gave them a total of 285 yards. North Carolina surrendered 21 pass completions on 29 tries for a total of 234 yards, and a completion percentage of 72.4%. Against the run, the Tar Heels gave up 241 yds on 45 tries, which is 5.4 yards per run allowed.

When talking about putting the ball in the endzone, the North Carolina Tar Heels are averaging 23.4 PPG. As a team they're averaging 112.4 yards on the ground which has them sitting 123rd in D-1. The Tar Heels have tallied 1,653 total yards over the course of this year. In terms of getting in the endzone, North Carolina has totaled 8 touchdowns through the air and 6 rushing touchdowns. North Carolina has accumulated 94 1st downs, and they have been hurt by 19 infractions for 137 yds. They have surrendered the football 8 times.

Regarding yards through the air, the Tar Heels have given up 1,021 yds which ranks them 36th in the nation. They have conceded 204.2 yards per game via the pass in addition to allowing a completion percentage of 66.5%. During the season, they have yielded 356.2 yards per contest which puts them 79th in D-1. They have given up 5 touchdowns via the pass as well as 6 touchdowns via the ground game. They are allowing teams to run for an average of 3.9 yards per running attempt and 152.0 yards on the ground per game for the season. During the season, they have given up 760 rushing yards through 5 games. The Tar Heels are sitting in 34th in Division 1 when it comes to the opposition scoring, giving up 19.0 points per contest.

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The Blue Devils come into this game with a record of 4-1 this season. In their last game, the Blue Devils took a defeat with a final score of 28-25 when they played the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Duke surrendered 27 run attempts for 165 yds (6.1 yards per carry). The Blue Devils passing defense gave up a completion percentage of 76.7%, surrendering 218 yards on 23 for 30 through the air. The Blue Devils finished the game with a total of 418 yards and they ran 77 plays (5.4 yards per play). Duke ran for 4.5 yds per attempt, finishing with a total of 159 yards on 35 attempts.

In relation to their scoring prowess, the Blue Devils are sitting 48th in college football holding an average of 34.0 points per game. The Duke Blue Devils are averaging 456.6 yards per game, which is good for 29th in the nation. The Duke offense has compiled 376 yards of penalties on 40 infractions, which ranks 50th in college football in terms of helping out the opposition. They have thrown 1 interception while allowing opponents to recover 1 fumble and they have been able to earn 117 1st downs. During this campaign thus far, the Blue Devils have compiled 1,150 yards through the air in addition to holding an average of 230.0 passing yards per game, putting them at 71st in the country. They maintain an average of 226.6 rushing yards per game and have run for 1,133 yards overall.

The Blue Devils are conceding 14.4 points per contest, which has them ranked 13th in college football. Duke has given up a total of 420 yards on the ground (84.0 yards per game) and 3 touchdowns via the rush for the campaign. They have conceded 6 touchdowns via the pass and 202.0 yards per outing, which has them ranked 58th in the nation. The Blue Devils defense has been on the field for 289 plays, which ranks them 6th in Division 1. They have 2 fumbles and 1 pick so far this year. Over the course of the season, they have conceded 72 points in total.

Who will win tonight's Tar Heels/Blue Devils college football game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Blue Devils -4.0

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