Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs North Carolina Tar Heels Prediction, 10/3/2026 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs North Carolina Tar Heels

Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026

Location: Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill, NC

TV: ESPN

Odds/Point Spread: Tar Heels (+20.5)

Total/Over-Under: 47.5

Kenan Stadium is the site where the North Carolina Tar Heels (2-1) will play the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-0) on Saturday, October 3, 2026. Notre Dame opens as 20.5-point favorites. The over/under has been set at 47.5.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish come into this game with a record of 4-0 for this year. In their last contest, the Fighting Irish took the field against the Purdue Boilermakers and went home with a win by a final score of 49-10. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish ended up running the ball 32 times and accounted for 177 yards, which is an average of 5.5 yards per tote. In all, they ran 58 plays which gave them a total of 444 yards. Notre Dame conceded 25 pass completions on 37 attempts for a total of 178 yds, and a completion rate of 67.6%. When it came to the battle of the line of scrimmage, the Fighting Irish gave up 40 yards on 31 tries, which is an average of 1.3 yds per run allowed.

The Fighting Irish have tallied 1,667 total yards this season. When it comes to scoring touchdowns, Notre Dame has totaled 10 passing touchdowns and 9 touchdowns via the ground. They have given the ball to the opposition 1 times. Notre Dame has accumulated 83 first downs offensively, and they have been hurt by 10 penalties for 106 yds. As a unit they're holding an average of 141.8 yards via the ground game which ranks them 98th in the nation. When talking about putting points on the board, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have an average of 42.3 points per outing.

The Fighting Irish are sitting in 2nd in college football in terms of their opponents scoring, allowing 8.3 points per game. Opposing teams are running for an average of 1.7 yards per attempt on the ground and 53.8 yards on the ground per game on the campaign. Overall, they have allowed 215 yards via the ground game in 4 games. When talking about yards through the air, the Fighting Irish have allowed 582 yds which puts them in 14th in D-1. They have given up 145.5 yards per contest through the air as well as conceding a completion percentage of 63.0%. Over the course of this season, they are granting 199.3 yards/outing which puts them 1st in the country. They have allowed 2 touchdowns by air as well as 1 touchdown on the ground.

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The Tar Heels come into this matchup with a record of 2-1 this season. In their last game, the Tar Heels took a defeat with a final score of 28-20 when they played the Clemson Tigers. The Tar Heels finished the contest with a total of 349 yards while running 69 plays (5.1 yds per play). North Carolina ran for 5.5 yds per carry, finishing with a total of 214 yds on 39 carries. North Carolina conceded 36 run attempts for 186 yards (5.2 yards per rush). The Tar Heels secondary allowed a completion percentage of 66.7%, surrendering 215 yards on 20 for 30 passing.

The North Carolina Tar Heels have an average of 366.0 yards/game, which ranks them 93rd in Division 1. The North Carolina offense has 95 penalty yards on 13 infractions, which is 136th in the country in terms of giving up free yards. They hold an average of 155.0 yards per game on the ground and have run for 465 yards in total. They have thrown 1 interception while surrendering 3 fumbles and they have been able to tally 63 1st downs. In relation to their ability to score points, the Tar Heels currently rank 105th in Division 1 with 23.3 points per contest. During the season thus far, the Tar Heels have thrown for 633 passing yards together with holding an average of 211.0 throwing yards per game, which has them ranked 89th in Division 1.

North Carolina has surrendered a total of 369 yards via the ground game (123.0 yards per outing) as well as 3 touchdowns on the ground so far this season. They have given up 1 touchdowns via the pass and 189.3 yards/outing, which has them in 47th in college football. This season, they have allowed 41 total points. They have compiled 3 fumbles and 2 interceptions this season. The Tar Heels defense has participated in 204 plays, which has them ranked 8th in the nation. The Tar Heels are allowing 13.7 PPG, which has them 20th in D-1.

Who will win tonight's Fighting Irish/Tar Heels college football game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Tar Heels +20.5

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