SMU Mustangs vs Florida State Seminoles Prediction, 9/7/2026 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: SMU Mustangs vs Florida State Seminoles

Date: Monday, September 7, 2026

Location: Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, FL

TV: ESPN+

Odds/Point Spread: Seminoles (+3.0)

Total/Over-Under: 52

The SMU Mustangs (9-4 last season) are hitting the road to Doak Campbell Stadium on Monday, September 7, 2026 where they will compete against the Florida State Seminoles (5-7 last year). SMU opens this matchup as 3-point favorites from oddsmakers. The total is set at 52.

The SMU Mustangs ended the season holding a 9-4 record. In their last matchup, the Mustangs stepped onto the field against the Arizona Wildcats and walked away with a win by a score of 24-19. In the running game, the Mustangs conceded 176 yds on 36 tries, which is 4.9 yards per run allowed. SMU allowed 28 completions on 43 attempts for 265 yards, and a completion percentage of 65.1%. Overall, they had 64 plays which gave them 392 yds. The SMU Mustangs ran the rock 32 times and accumulated 114 yds, which earned them an average of 3.6 yards per attempt.

The Mustangs earned 5,421 yards in total for last season. SMU compiled 26 touchdowns through the air and 25 rushing touchdowns. They surrendered the ball 20 different times. SMU totaled 269 1st downs as a unit, and they were called for 91 infractions for 920 yds. Offensively they held an average of 133.9 yds on the ground, which had them sitting 95th in the country. Concerning scoring points, the SMU Mustangs had an average of 32.2 points per outing.

The Mustangs ranked 32nd in D-1 concerning team defense, conceding 20.5 points per game. They allowed 3.2 yards per running attempt and 111.9 rushing yards per game last season. In total, they gave up 1,455 yards via the running game in 13 games. Regarding yards via the pass, the Mustangs gave up 3,682 yds which had them ranked 135th in the nation. In their 13 games played, they gave up 283.2 yards per game via the pass and surrendering a completion percentage of 60.9%. They allowed 395.1 yards/contest ranking them 89th in D-1. They conceded 26 touchdowns via the pass and 5 touchdowns on the ground.

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The Seminoles wrapped up their year holding a 5-7 record. The last time they took the field, the Seminoles got the victory with a final of 34-17 against the New Mexico State Aggies. The Seminoles finished the game with a total of 419 yards and they ran 66 plays (6.3 yds per play). Florida State rushed the football for 5.6 yards per tote, finishing with a total of 217 yards on 39 attempts. Florida State gave up 23 running attempts for 47 yards (2.0 yds per carry). The Seminoles secondary allowed a completion percentage of 60.5%, surrendering 272 yds on 26 for 43 through the air.

The Florida State Seminoles averaged 472.1 yards per outing, which ranked them 6th in college football. The Florida State offense totaled 544 penalty yards on 65 violations, which had them ranked 102nd in the nation in terms of giving up free yards. They held an average of 218.7 yards per game via the rush and ran for 2,624 yards for last season. They tossed 10 picks while surrendering 10 fumbles and they obtained 292 first downs. When looking at putting points on the board, the Seminoles had a ranking of 22nd in the nation averaging 33.0 points per game. Last season, the Seminoles compiled 3,041 yards through the air in addition to averaging 253.4 passing yards per outing, which had them ranked 40th in the country.

Florida State allowed a total of 1,657 rushing yards (138.1 yards/game) as well as 12 touchdowns via the rush last season. They allowed 20 touchdowns through the air in addition to 190.8 yards/outing, which had them sitting 28th in college football. Overall, they relinquished 264 total points. They totaled 2 fumbles recovered and 12 picks in the previous season. The Seminoles defense took part in 787 plays, which was 21st in D-1. The Seminoles conceded 22.0 points per game, which had them ranked 43rd in Division 1.

Who will win tonight's Mustangs/Seminoles college football game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Seminoles +3.0

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