TCU Horned Frogs vs Baylor Bears Prediction, 10/17/2026 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: TCU Horned Frogs vs Baylor Bears

Date: Saturday, October 17, 2026

Location: McLane Stadium in Waco, TX

TV: FS1

Odds/Point Spread: Bears (-6.0)

Total/Over-Under: 47.5

The Baylor Bears (4-1) are welcoming the TCU Horned Frogs (2-3) at McLane Stadium on Saturday, October 17, 2026. TCU opens this matchup as 6-point dogs. The over/under is 47.5.

The TCU Horned Frogs head into this game 2-3 this season. In their last matchup, the Horned Frogs faced the BYU Cougars and took a loss by a final of 17-10. The TCU Horned Frogs rushed the ball a total of 30 different times and accumulated 72 yds, which came out to an average of 2.4 yards per tote. On the day, they tallied 55 plays which totaled 259 yds. TCU relinquished 11 completions on 24 tries for 62 yds, and a completion rate of 45.8%. On the ground, the Horned Frogs conceded 154 yards on 38 tries, which averages out to 4.1 yds per rush surrendered.

Regarding scoring, the TCU Horned Frogs have an average of 25.4 points per contest. Offensively they're holding an average of 125.4 yards in the run game giving them a rank of 110th in the nation. The Horned Frogs have earned 2,027 total yards this year. When it comes to getting in the endzone, TCU has earned 8 passing touchdowns and 7 touchdowns on the ground. TCU has amassed 104 1st downs as an offense, and they have been called for 33 infractions for 301 yds. They have given the ball to the opposition 8 different times.

When talking about passing yards, the Horned Frogs have conceded 777 yards which puts them in 9th in college football. They are conceding 155.4 yards per game through the air as well as giving up a completion percentage of 58.7%. For the year, they are conceding 255.0 yards per outing which puts them 9th in Division 1. They have yielded 2 touchdowns via the pass and 6 touchdowns via the ground game. The opposition is running for an average of 3.2 yards per rushing attempt and 99.6 rushing yards per game on the year. Overall, they have given up 498 running yards through 5 outings. The Horned Frogs are ranked 9th in Division 1 concerning team defense, conceding 13.4 PPG.

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The Bears head into this matchup 4-1 for this season. When they last stepped on the field, the Bears took home the win by a final score of 55-19 when they faced the Arizona State Sun Devils. Baylor allowed 30 run attempts for 99 yards (3.3 yards per rush). The Bears secondary allowed a completion rate of 59.1%, relinquishing 310 yards on 26 for 44 passing. The Bears finished with a total of 564 yards while they ran 79 plays (7.1 yards per play). Baylor rushed the football for 6.8 yds per carry, finishing the game with 244 yards on 36 attempts.

When it comes to how much they score, the Bears rank 40th in Division 1 averaging 34.8 PPG. The Baylor Bears average 461.4 yards per game, ranking them 23rd in the country. The Baylor offense has racked up 336 yds of penalties on 37 infractions, ranking them 70th in college football in terms of giving up free yards. They have given away 5 picks while losing 3 fumbles and they have been able to obtain 129 1st downs. Over the course of the season so far, the Bears have thrown for 1,460 yards through the air as well as an average of 292.0 passing yards per game, which ranks 17th in the country. They are averaging 169.4 yards via the ground game and have rushed for 847 yards for the year.

The Bears are surrendering 14.2 PPG, which has them ranked 12th in D-1. Baylor has allowed the opposition a total of 487 rushing yards (97.4 yards per contest) in addition to 4 touchdowns by way of the ground game on the campaign. They have yielded 3 touchdowns via the pass and 229.2 yards per game, which has them in 96th in the country. The Bears defense has taken the field for 361 plays, which is good for 62nd in Division 1. They have earned 5 fumbles and 5 interceptions for the season. Over the course of the season, they have allowed 71 points.

Who will win tonight's Horned Frogs/Bears college football game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Horned Frogs +6.0

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