UMass Minutemen vs Sacramento State Hornets Prediction, 9/26/2026 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: UMass Minutemen vs Sacramento State Hornets

Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026

Location: Hornet Stadium in Sacramento, CA

TV: ESPN+

Odds/Point Spread: Hornets (+4.5)

Total/Over-Under: 48.5

Hornet Stadium is where the Sacramento State Hornets (1-3) will try to defeat the UMass Minutemen (3-0) on Saturday, September 26, 2026. Sacramento State is 4.5-point underdogs from oddsmakers. The total comes in at 48.5.

The UMass Minutemen head into this matchup 3-0 this season. In their last contest, the Minutemen took on the Stonehill Skyhawks and went home with a win by a final score of 36-14. On the day, they tallied 60 plays which gave them a total of 355 yds. The UMass Minutemen ran the ball a total of 35 different times and tallied 195 yds, which earned them an average of 5.6 yards per tote. In the running game, the Minutemen gave up 27 yds on 28 attempts, which averages out to 1.0 yards per run allowed. UMass relinquished 16 completions on 31 attempts for 134 yards, and a completion percentage of 51.6%.

Concerning scoring, the UMass Minutemen have an average of 36.7 points per outing. Offensively they maintain an average of 182.3 yards on the ground which is 48th in the country. The Minutemen have earned 1,067 total yards for the year. When it comes to distribution of touchdowns, UMass has compiled 5 touchdowns via the pass and 6 touchdowns via the ground. UMass has a total of 47 first downs, and they have committed 25 penalties for 224 yards. They have surrendered the football 1 time.

The Minutemen are sitting in 27th in the nation concerning the opposition scoring, giving up 15.0 PPG. They are allowing 2.1 yards per tote and 65.7 rushing yards per game for the year. Overall, they have conceded 197 yards via the running game in 3 outings. When talking about passing yards, the Minutemen have given up 613 yards which ranks them 72nd in the country. They have conceded 204.3 yards per game through the air as well as conceding a completion percentage of 58.5%. Overall, they are allowing 270.0 yards per contest which puts them 27th in Division 1. They have allowed 5 touchdowns through the air as well as 1 touchdown via the ground game.

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The Hornets come into this matchup with a record of 1-3 for this season. When they last played, the Hornets walked away with a loss by a score of 31-10 when they played the North Dakota State Bison. Sacramento State rushed the football for 3.5 yds per carry, finishing the game with 90 yards on 26 attempts. The Hornets finished the contest with a total of 330 yds while running 66 plays (5.0 yds per play). The Hornets passing defense gave up a completion percentage of 56.0%, surrendering 210 yards on 14 out of 25 through the air. Sacramento State surrendered 34 run attempts for 152 yds (4.5 yds per carry).

The Sacramento State Hornets hold an average of 329.0 yards/game, which ranks them 116th in the country. The Sacramento State offense has accrued 240 penalty yds on 26 violations, which is good for 26th in D-1 in terms of making mistakes. They hold an average of 113.5 yards per game via the rush and have run for 454 yards in total. They have thrown 5 interceptions while losing 3 fumbles and they have obtained 74 1st downs. Regarding how much they score, the Hornets are sitting 119th in Division 1 by scoring 20.5 PPG. Over the course of the season so far, the Hornets have thrown for 862 passing yards along with an average of 215.5 passing yards per outing, which has them ranked 85th in D-1.

Sacramento State has surrendered a total of 518 yards rushing (129.5 yards per outing) in addition to 8 touchdowns via the rush on the season. They have surrendered 5 touchdowns from the passing game in addition to 220.3 yards per contest, ranking them 86th in D-1. In total, they have surrendered 108 total points. Their defense has 2 fumbles recovered and no interceptions over the course of the season. The Hornets defense has participated in 243 plays, which is 133rd in the nation. The Hornets are allowing 27.0 points per game, ranking them 104th in the nation.

Who will win tonight's Minutemen/Hornets college football game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Hornets +4.5

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