Vanderbilt Commodores vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction, 11/7/2026 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Vanderbilt Commodores vs Mississippi State Bulldogs

Date: Saturday, November 7, 2026

Location: Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, MS

TV: SEC Network

Odds/Point Spread: Bulldogs (-3.5)

Total/Over-Under: 48.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores (3-5) are headed to Davis Wade Stadium on Saturday, November 7, 2026 where they will take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-4). Mississippi State is 3.5-point favorites. The over/under is 48.5.

The Vanderbilt Commodores head into this game 3-5 for this year. The last time they stepped onto the field, the Commodores stepped onto the field against the Kentucky Wildcats and went home with a loss by a final score of 34-17. In the running game, the Commodores gave up 173 yds on 39 attempts, which is 4.4 yds per run allowed. Vanderbilt surrendered 19 completions on 26 attempts for 203 yds, and a completion percentage of 73.1%. In all, they had 53 plays which converted into 262 yards. The Vanderbilt Commodores ran the football 17 different times and totaled 15 yds, which is an average of 0.9 yards per tote.

The Commodores have racked up 2,742 total yards this season. When it comes to notching touchdowns, Vanderbilt has earned 9 touchdowns through the air and 11 touchdowns on the ground. They have surrendered the football 14 different times. Vanderbilt has compiled 146 first downs as a team, and they have committed 70 infractions for 530 yards. As a team they are averaging 106.1 yards in the run game which is 129th in Division 1. When talking about scoring points, the Vanderbilt Commodores hold an average of 22.8 PPG.

Concerning yards through the air, the Commodores have allowed 1,738 yds which puts them in 71st in the nation. They are conceding 217.3 yards per outing via the pass as well as conceding a completion percentage of 65.9%. During this campaign, they are surrendering 366.9 yards per contest putting them at 76th in Division 1. They have given up 13 touchdowns by air and 14 touchdowns pounding the rock. They are giving up an average of 4.2 yards per rush and 149.6 yards on the ground per game this season. Overall, they have given up 1,197 running yards through 8 games. The Commodores are sitting in 113th in college football concerning the opposition scoring, conceding 30.3 PPG.

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The Bulldogs come into this game with a record of 4-4 this season. When they last stepped on the field, the Bulldogs took a defeat with a final score of 31-3 when they played the Texas Longhorns. Mississippi State rushed the ball for 1.7 yards per attempt, totaling 68 yards on 41 carries. The Bulldogs ended up finishing with 187 yds and they ran 66 plays (2.8 yds per play). The Bulldogs secondary conceded a completion rate of 81.0%, surrendering 220 yds on 17 out of 21 passing. Mississippi State conceded 32 attempts on the ground for 60 yds (1.9 yds per rush).

Concerning the points being put on the board, the Bulldogs currently rank 82nd in Division 1 maintaining an average of 26.6 points per outing. The Mississippi State Bulldogs hold an average of 408.1 yards per outing, which ranks them 51st in the nation. The Mississippi State offense has compiled 564 yds of penalties on 61 infractions, which is 34th in the nation in terms of making mistakes. They have thrown 6 interceptions while losing 5 fumbles and they have been able to obtain 177 first downs. During the season so far, the Bulldogs currently sit at 1,972 yards via the pass along with an average of 246.5 passing yards per game, ranking them 47th in college football. They hold an average of 161.6 yards per game via the rush and have toted the ball for 1,293 yards for the year.

The Bulldogs are giving up 28.1 points per game, which puts them 104th in college football. Mississippi State has yielded a total of 932 rushing yards (116.5 yards per contest) and 5 touchdowns via the rush so far this season. They have allowed the opposition 18 touchdowns from the passing game as well as 261.5 yards per outing, which has them ranked 128th in the country. The Bulldogs defense has taken part in 538 plays, which is 81st in the nation. They have tallied 5 fumbles and 2 interceptions on the year. This season, they have conceded 225 points in total.

Who will win tonight's Commodores/Bulldogs college football game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Commodores +3.5

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